NOAA forecasts 8 to 14 Atlantic storms

NOAA on May 21 said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below normal, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms between June 1 and November 30. The agency said 3 to 6 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. NOAA assigned a 55% chance to a below-normal season, a 35% chance to a near-normal season and a 10% chance to an above-normal season. The outlook was released ahead of the official June 1 start of the Atlantic season. ### How many storms is NOAA actually forecasting? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said the 8-to-14 range refers to named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. The agency said 3 to 6 could strengthen into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph, and 1 to 3 could become major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The forecast is issued with 70% confidence, NOAA said. The agency’s historical averages are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes for a typical Atlantic season. ### Why is NOAA expecting a quieter season this year? El Niño is the main reason NOAA cited for the milder outlook. The Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance during May through July 2026 and a 96% chance during December 2026 through February 2027. NOAA said El Niño can increase upper-level winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, creating conditions that are less favorable for storm development. The agency also said warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain in place, which can still support hurricane formation even in a quieter overall year. ### Does “below normal” mean coastal residents can relax? Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in the agency’s release that “prepare now” remains the message. NOAA said one storm making landfall can define a season for a community, regardless of the total number of storms. NPR reported that federal officials also stressed the risk of destructive storms despite the lower count forecast. The National Hurricane Center’s seasonal outlook does not predict where storms will track or whether any will strike land. ### Where was the forecast announced? Lakeland, Florida, was the site of NOAA’s May 21 news conference announcing the outlook, according to the agency’s media advisory. NOAA said officials planned to discuss the expected activity, the factors shaping the forecast and public preparedness guidance. Neil Jacobs, NOAA’s administrator, was cited by regional outlets covering the announcement. NOAA’s published release and Climate Prediction Center outlook carry the agency’s official forecast ranges and probabilities. ### What should people watch next? June 1 is the date routine Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks resume from the National Hurricane Center. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center post in-season updates, storm outlooks and forecast graphics on their official websites as conditions change. November 30 is the scheduled end of the Atlantic hurricane season. Between those dates, NOAA said forecasters will monitor whether El Niño develops as expected and how Atlantic ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions evolve.