NHL Standings Format Sparks Analytics Debate
Tight playoff races in the NHL have renewed debate among analysts over whether the league should adopt a "three-point model" for its standings. This model would grant three points for a regulation win, aiming to better reward teams that win games without needing overtime. The discussion highlights an intersection of sports analytics and league policy aimed at addressing compressed standings.
- The current NHL system, used since the 1999-2000 season, awards two points for any win, one for an overtime or shootout loss, and zero for a regulation loss. This means a game that goes to overtime results in a total of three points being awarded, while a regulation game awards only two. - The most common alternative is the "3-2-1" model, which gives three points for a regulation win, two for an overtime/shootout win, and one for an overtime/shootout loss. This system is the standard for the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF), used in events like the Olympics, and has also been adopted by the Professional Women's Hockey League (PWHL). - A primary argument against the current format is that the "loser point" incentivizes conservative play when games are tied late in the third period, as teams are encouraged to secure the guaranteed single point. Data from hockey analyst Micah Blake McCurdy has shown a significant drop in offensive chances in the final period of tied games. - The debate is intensified by a rising number of games going past regulation, which reached a record 25.7% in the 2025-26 season. This trend increases the number of three-point games, contributing to compressed standings. - The NHL's resistance to change is largely driven by a desire for league parity. Commissioner Gary Bettman has favored the current system because the tighter standings keep more teams in the playoff race later in the season, which sustains fan engagement and ticket sales. - While studies have shown a 3-2-1 system might not dramatically change which teams qualify for the postseason, it would more accurately reflect team performance and could alter playoff matchups. For instance, applying the model to the 2021-22 season would have changed the Central Division standings and swapped the Western Conference wild-card teams. - The league has already acknowledged the value of regulation wins by making them the primary tiebreaker in the standings, a change made ahead of the 2019-20 season. Previously, the tiebreaker was regulation plus overtime wins.
