Jobs Stable, Mortgage Pain
Initial jobless claims dropped to 205,000 for the week ending March 14, reinforcing a 'low hire, low fire' labor backdrop that supports household cashflows. At the same time mortgage costs stay high — average 30‑year fixed at 6.32% and 15‑year at 5.67% — which keeps housing affordability squeezed and caps housing‑sensitive GDP contributions. (sbj.net) (bankrate.com)
The Labor Department’s four-week moving average of initial claims stood at 210,750, down 750 from the prior week. (dol.gov)) That reading beat consensus: the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg survey was 215,000, signaling claims surprised to the upside for labor-market resilience. (bloomberg.com)) Policymakers reacted from a position of caution — the FOMC on March 17–18 held the federal‑funds target range at 3.5%–3.75% and said job gains “have remained low” while the unemployment rate has been “little changed.” (federalreserve.gov)) On housing finance, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30‑year average at 6.22% and the 15‑year at 5.54% as of March 19, each up from the prior week by 11 and 4 basis points respectively. (freddiemac.com)) Mortgage activity showed strain: the Mortgage Bankers Association said total application volume dropped 10.9% in the week ending March 13 even as the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 1% week‑over‑week. (mba.org)) Building data are mixed for GDP exposure — the Census Bureau reported housing starts climbed 7.2% in January to a 1,487,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, while single‑family starts fell to a 935,000 pace. (census.gov))
