US Political Polarization Worsens Ahead of Midterms
Analysis ahead of the 2026 midterm elections suggests that partisan polarization is deepening, with a small number of highly partisan voters holding the most power in most congressional races. This is attributed to redistricting that has reduced competitive seats, amplifying the influence of ideological extremes. Recent polls show most Americans disapprove of President Trump's performance but also lack confidence in Congressional Democrats.
- The share of Americans holding consistently liberal or conservative opinions has more than doubled in the last two decades, increasing from 10% to 21% between 1994 and 2014. - "Affective polarization," which refers to feelings of anger and hostility toward the opposing party, has been on the rise and is a significant component of the current political climate in the U.S. - An extraordinary mid-decade redistricting push has further decreased the number of competitive House seats, with less than 10% of these races considered "toss-up" or "lean" contests for the 2026 midterms. - The current era of polarization is not unprecedented in American history; the period leading up to the Civil War and the 1890s also saw significant partisan division, driven by both economic and moral issues. - While voters express a desire for cross-party cooperation, a January 2026 poll shows that approximately 9 out of 10 Democratic and Republican voters intend to support their own party's candidate in the upcoming congressional elections. - Research indicates that the increase in polarization within Congress has been asymmetrical, with a more significant rightward shift among Republicans since the 1970s. - The decline of bipartisan cooperation can be traced back to the 1970s when institutional reforms in Congress empowered party leaders and reduced the influence of more moderate committee chairs. - Party leaders are now responsible for a significant portion of polarization in congressional voting, with party discipline accounting for about 65% of the polarization in roll call votes in recent years.
