Maui surf forecast: small to moderate swell Thursday

Maui Now published a surf forecast on May 13 saying a fading short-period northwest swell would be replaced by a new long-period northwest swell on Thursday. The outlet said the incoming swell would bring small to moderate surf to Maui during its peak later in the day. NOAA's Honolulu forecast office used similar language in its statewide surf forecast issued early Thursday, describing a new northwest to north-northwest swell filling in through the morning. The May 14 forecast was a short-horizon update rather than a warning bulletin. The National Weather Service said the swell was expected to produce "above average surf" along north-facing shores, while south shores were expected to stay small and east shores rough and choppy under trade-wind swell. Maui Now said its daily report drew on NOAA and SwellInfo data. (mauinow.com) ### What, exactly, was forecast for Maui's north-facing shores? Maui Now's table for Thursday listed north-facing surf at 6 to 8 feet during the morning and afternoon periods, after 2 to 4 feet overnight. West-facing shores were listed at 1 to 3 feet, south-facing shores at 2 to 4 feet, and east-facing shores at 3 to 5 feet. The forecast was published late on May 13 for May 14 conditions. (forecast.weather.gov) NOAA's Honolulu office said the incoming swell was from 320 to 330 degrees, a northwest to north-northwest direction that favors north-facing exposures in Hawaii. The agency said the swell would likely peak later Thursday and then begin easing late Thursday night into the weekend. ### Why did forecasters distinguish between short-period and long-period swell? (mauinow.com) NOAA's surf forecast drew a line between the fading short-period northwest swell and the new long-period swell because the two wave trains behave differently as they reach Hawaii. Maui Now said the shorter-period swell was fading as the longer-period pulse arrived, and the National Weather Service said the newer swell was still filling in Thursday morning before reaching its peak later in the day. (forecast.weather.gov) The 320- to 330-degree reading in NOAA's discussion identified the direction of the incoming swell, not a wind shift at the beach. The forecast office said that direction would support larger surf on north-facing shores than on west- or south-facing breaks. ### What were forecasters saying about conditions on other Maui shores? Maui Now said south-facing shores would remain in the 2- to 4-foot range on Thursday. (mauinow.com) NOAA said a mix of small, medium- to long-period south swells would maintain small surf along south-facing shores into the weekend. The National Weather Service said east-facing shores would stay rough and choppy because of locally strong trade winds. (forecast.weather.gov) Maui Now's Thursday outlook listed east-facing surf at 3 to 5 feet during the day, while its Friday forecast said a slight decrease in wind swell was expected as trades weakened to moderate to locally fresh speeds. ### Did the Thursday peak hold into Friday? (mauinow.com) Maui Now's May 14 forecast for May 15 said the northwest to north-northwest swell would likely peak late Thursday afternoon into the evening and then gradually fade. NOAA's Thursday afternoon surf forecast used the same timing, saying the swell should fade late Thursday night into the weekend. Friday's Maui Now update also pointed to small surf on most Maui exposures outside the north shore bump from the departing swell. (mauinow.com) The report said a series of small south swells generated by gales near New Zealand could keep south shore surf near summer average levels into next week. ### Where can readers check the next update? Maui Now posted the May 15 surf forecast on May 14, continuing its daily update cycle for island surf conditions. (mauinow.com) NOAA's Honolulu forecast office also updates its statewide surf forecast multiple times a day, including discussion of swell direction, timing and expected fade. The next concrete milestone in the forecast was the weekend fade. (mauinow.com) NOAA said the northwest swell should continue easing after Thursday night's peak, while Maui Now's Friday report said the decline would extend into the weekend. (forecast.weather.gov)