Black Swift S0 drone data added to NOAA forecasts

NOAA said this week it will begin feeding data from Black Swift Technologies’ S0 drone into its operational hurricane forecast model during the 2026 Atlantic season, marking the first time the small uncrewed aircraft system will be used that way. The agency’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory said on May 19 that scientists from AOML and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies found the added observations improved hurricane intensity forecasts in testing. The change applies to NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, or HAFS, the agency’s operational next-generation hurricane model. The Atlantic season officially begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, according to NOAA. ### What exactly is being added to NOAA’s model? Black Swift Technologies’ S0 is a small uncrewed aircraft system launched from NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft, according to AOML. NOAA said the system weighs 2.6 pounds and collects atmospheric observations including pressure, temperature, humidity and wind, along with ocean measurements including waves and sea surface temperature. Those observations are transmitted in real time after testing and data-quality checks, AOML said. (aoml.noaa.gov) NOAA said the S0 is designed to sample the marine boundary layer near the ocean surface, an area where crewed aircraft collect relatively few measurements because it is too dangerous to fly there during a hurricane. AOML said that near-surface zone contains processes that help control storm formation and intensification. ### Why does NOAA care about measurements so close to the ocean? (aoml.noaa.gov) AOML said HAFS already benefits from data gathered by NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft, but the model has had fewer direct observations near the surface. The S0 is meant to fill part of that gap by flying in the lower part of the storm environment above the ocean. NOAA said those observations offer a view of how heat, moisture and momentum move between the ocean and atmosphere. (aoml.noaa.gov) NOAA’s hurricane observation pages show that traditional instruments such as dropsondes measure pressure, temperature, humidity and wind as they descend through the storm, while P-3 aircraft and other systems sample storm structure from different altitudes. The S0 adds another stream of observations from a harder-to-reach layer of the storm, based on NOAA’s description of its instrument mix. (aoml.noaa.gov) ### How much did the drone data help in NOAA’s tests? Scientists from CIMAS and AOML tested the S0 data in retrospective HAFS experiments covering 10 tropical cyclones from 2022 through 2025, AOML said. NOAA said the experiments compared model runs with and without the drone observations. Overall hurricane intensity forecasts improved by about 10% when the S0 data was included, and the improvement reached as much as 25% for tropical storms, according to AOML. (aoml.noaa.gov) AOML also said traditional hurricane hunter data can improve forecast accuracy by up to 20% overall. In the same NOAA post, a quoted researcher said “a 10% improvement in maximum wind errors” from assimilating Black Swift S0 data was “huge.” ### Has NOAA used this drone in storms before? NOAA has been testing the S0 for several seasons. AOML said NOAA successfully launched the Black Swift drone into Tropical Storm Tammy on Oct. 19, 2023, flying as low as 100 feet above sea level during a mission lasting 1 hour and 11 minutes. (aoml.noaa.gov) NOAA also reported later storm missions in which Black Swift S0 drones sampled the eye, eyewall and lower layers of hurricanes after launch from a P-3 aircraft. Black Swift Technologies said in April that validation flights at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, demonstrated simultaneous multi-UAS sampling launched from a crewed hurricane aircraft. That company statement aligns with NOAA’s broader push to expand uncrewed observations around hurricanes, though NOAA’s May 19 post is the agency’s formal statement on operational model integration for 2026. (aoml.noaa.gov) ### When will people start seeing this change matter operationally? NOAA said the S0 data will be integrated into HAFS during the 2026 hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center said routine Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks resume on June 1, 2026, and its May 21 outlook page said no tropical cyclone formation was expected in the Atlantic over the next seven days as of early Thursday. NOAA was also scheduled to issue its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21 from the Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida. (unmannedsystemstechnology.com) (aoml.noaa.gov)