Maple Leafs win top draft lottery

The NHL draft lottery is usually about rebuilding teams. This year it’s also about Toronto — and that’s why the result landed so hard. The Maple Leafs won the 2026 lottery on Tuesday, May 5, jumping to No. 1 overall with only an 8.5% chance and suddenly taking control of the top of the board. That matters on its own, but it matters even more because Toronto just reshuffled its front office and because this pick was tied up in a trade condition that looked very real a few days ago. (nhl.com) ### Wait, the Leafs actually won? Yes. Toronto got the No. 1 pick, San Jose got No. 2, and Vancouver will pick No. 3. The lottery only sets the top two selections among the 16 non-playoff teams or teams holding those picks, so once those spots were drawn, the rest of the order fell into place by standings position. (nh([nhl.com)# Why is that a surprise? Because Toronto did not enter as the favorite. The Canucks had the best odds at 18.5%, Chicago was next at 13.5%, and the Rangers were at 11.5%. Toronto sat fifth at 8.5% and still jumped all the way to the top. Basically, this is the kind of outcome the lottery is built to allow — but fans still treat it like a bolt from nowhere when it actually happens. (nhl.com) ### Who are they picking first? Not officially anyone yet, but the conversation starts with Gavin McKenna. NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings have the Penn State left wing at No. 1 among North American skaters, and NHL.com framed Toronto’s choice as McKenna or Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg. That tells you the top tier is pretty clear even if the exact order is not. (nhl.com) ### Why does the Boston angle matter? Because Toronto’s 2026 first-round pick was conditionally owed to the Bruins from a March 7, 2025 trade — unless it landed in the top five after the lottery. Now that the Leafs have won No. 1 overall, that protection kicks in. Boston won’t get this pick. Instead, Toronto will send a 2027 or 2028 first-rounder. That is a huge swing in asset value. (nhl.com) ### Why is this bigger than one pick? Because the Leafs just changed leadership. John Chayka was hired as general manager on Sunday, and Mats Sundin came back as a senior adviser. Then, two days later, they inherited the most important chip a front office can get. A normal lottery win is one thing. A lottery win dropped into a brand-new regime is something else — it speeds up every big decision. (nhl.com) ### Does Toronto have to take McKenna? No. The No. 1 pick gives Toronto control, not obligation. The Leafs can draft McKenna, take Stenberg, or explore trade scenarios if they think a different path fits better. But the catch is that teams almost never get many chances at the very top, and Toronto has only picked first twice before — Wendel Clark in 1985 and Auston Matthews in 2016. (nhl.com) ### When does this turn into a real decision? Fast. The draft is set for June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with Round 1 on June 26. So this isn’t some long, abstract offseason storyline. Toronto now has a few weeks to decide whether this is a straightforward best-player pick or the start of something more aggressive. (nhl.com) ### Bottom line? Toronto didn’t just get lucky. It got leverage. The Leafs kept a pick that could have gone to Boston, landed the top slot with long odds, and handed a new front office the chance to define its era immediately. (nhl.com)