China’s exports and debt flags

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, and new credit in the first quarter rose more slowly than a year earlier. (customs.gov.cn, chinadaily.com.cn) China’s General Administration of Customs reported March exports up 2.5 percent from a year earlier in United States dollar terms, down from 19.2 percent growth in January and February combined. Imports rose 27.8 percent in March, the fastest pace since November 2021, according to customs data cited by CNBC. (customs.gov.cn, cnbc.com) The March trade surplus narrowed to $51.13 billion, versus $101.93 billion a year earlier. For the first quarter, China’s trade surplus totaled $264.75 billion, down from $271.09 billion in the same period of 2025. (tradingeconomics.com, msn.com) On the financing side, the People’s Bank of China said first-quarter aggregate social financing reached 14.83 trillion yuan, 354.5 billion yuan less than a year earlier. Outstanding aggregate social financing stood at 456.46 trillion yuan at the end of March, up 7.9 percent year over year. (chinadaily.com.cn, news.cgtn.com) Aggregate social financing is China’s broad credit gauge, covering bank loans, bond sales and other funding that reaches households and companies. New renminbi loans came in at 8.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, while broad money supply growth eased to 8.5 percent in March from 9 percent in February. (chinadaily.com.cn, en.macromicro.me) The trade slowdown followed a strong start to the year. Official data showed goods trade rose 18.3 percent in January and February, with exports up 19.2 percent and imports up 17.1 percent before the March deceleration. (english.www.gov.cn) Officials and analysts tied the March shift to a tougher external backdrop. Customs Vice Minister Wang Jun said oil prices had seen “fierce fluctuation,” and CNBC reported economists pointing to weaker global demand tied to the Middle East conflict and higher energy costs. (cnbc.com, english.www.gov.cn) Chinese state media framed the credit figures more positively. China Daily quoted China Minsheng Bank economist Wen Bin saying financing and money growth were still running above nominal gross domestic product growth and left policy support “accommodative.” (chinadaily.com.cn) The podcast claim that 33 to 35 percent of new debt is now going to interest service could not be independently verified from the official March trade release or the People’s Bank of China’s first-quarter financing statement. Publicly available official releases reviewed here give the headline trade and credit totals, but not that debt-service breakdown. (customs.gov.cn, chinadaily.com.cn) For now, the official picture is narrower but clear: export growth cooled to a six-month low in March, imports jumped, and credit growth in the first quarter lost some speed from a year earlier. (cnbc.com, chinadaily.com.cn)