Excel Models Used for 'Mentions Markets' Trading
A trader's story shared on social media highlighted the use of Excel models for trading in "mentions markets." The post detailed a practical application of using spreadsheets for financial analysis in a niche trading area. This illustrates an unconventional use of Excel beyond traditional financial modeling.
- "Mentions markets" are a type of prediction market where participants trade contracts on whether a specific word or phrase will be said by a public figure during an event, such as a corporate earnings call or a political speech. The contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99 and settle at $1 if the phrase is mentioned and $0 if it is not. - These markets are regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees platforms like Kalshi. However, the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction is contested by some state regulators who view these markets as a form of gambling. - In February 2026, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig asserted the agency's authority over these markets, withdrawing a proposed rule from a previous administration that would have prohibited sports and political event contracts. This signaled a more favorable federal regulatory environment for the growth of such markets. - While overall trading volume in mentions markets is a small fraction of the prediction market landscape, specific events can draw significant interest. For example, during a single NFL season, traders on the Kalshi platform wagered more than $47 million on markets related to words said by sports announcers. - Traders in these markets rely on detailed data analysis, sometimes using specialized tools that provide API access to curated political speech transcripts with metadata like timestamps and speaker information. This data can be fed into custom models built in Excel to analyze word frequency and predict outcomes. - Despite the availability of sophisticated trading software, Excel remains a dominant tool in finance due to its versatility and accessibility for building custom models. For niche applications like mentions markets, building a model in Excel allows for greater control and specificity compared to generalized trading platforms. - The skills used to build these Excel models, such as advanced formulas (INDEX, MATCH, XLOOKUP), PivotTables, and the creation of interactive dashboards, are highly valued for careers in both finance and data analytics. - The integrity of these markets is a point of concern, with recorded instances of individuals attempting to influence outcomes by shouting market-listed words during a live speech. In response to the growing popularity of prediction markets, regulators have signaled an increased focus on monitoring for potential fraud and insider trading.
