War’s economic shockwave
New business surveys from the US to the euro zone will provide the first broad health check since the Middle East hostilities began — and early signs point to suppressed confidence and higher risk aversion. In Europe a surprise euro‑zone trade deficit and producer‑price deflation in Germany highlight exposure to energy shocks, while Latin America faces mounting energy‑security risks. (financialpost.com) (riotimesonline.com)
S&P Global’s synchronized “flash” PMIs — the first cross‑market snap of March activity — are due on March 24 and are being treated as the first broad business read since the surge in Middle East hostilities. (gomarkets.com) The Cboe VIX spiked above 25.0 on March 20, hitting about 25.8 as equity indexes slipped, signaling investors priced in larger near‑term swings. (markets.financialcontent.com) Institutional analysis shows equities fell and core government yields and volatility rose after the escalation, while the US dollar strengthened against major peers. (ftinstitutional.com) Eurostat’s first estimate shows the euro‑area shifted to a €1.9 billion goods trade deficit in January 2026, with extra‑EU exports down 7.6% year‑on‑year to €215.3bn and imports down 7.3% to €217.2bn. (ec.europa.eu) Germany’s producer‑price index has been sliding: Destatis reported industrial producer prices were roughly 3.0% lower year‑on‑year in January 2026, and a March 20 release showed PPI at about ‑3.3% YoY in the latest print. (destatis.de) The IEA flagged sharper oil and gas price moves and shipping‑related stresses in its March oil market report, as producers such as the UAE and Kuwait cut output and tankers increasingly avoided the Strait of Hormuz. (iea.org) In Latin America, governments are already adjusting supply routes: Brazil opened talks to expand Bolivian natural‑gas imports this month, while regional analysts and bank research flag both net‑export winners (Brazil, Colombia, Argentina) and heightened energy‑security risks. (newsbase.com) Markets and policymakers are now watching the March 23 flash EU consumer‑confidence update and the March 24 global PMIs for confirmation of business sentiment shifts and the knock‑on to trade and inflation. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)
