March Central Bank Policy Holds Steady
March is shaping up as a month of "continuity, not crisis" for the world's biggest economies, with most G10 central banks expected to hold rates steady and only New Zealand likely to move. China is set to formalize its next Five-Year Plan while U.S. fiscal and tariff policies remain a wildcard. The global economy is being shaped by a confluence of inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical risk as markets brace for impact from U.S. military strikes against Iran.
The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down several of President Trump's global tariffs was met with a swift White House response. The administration immediately imposed a new 10% global import tariff, which has since been increased to 15%, under the authority of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This temporary measure, lasting a maximum of 150 days, is expected to give the U.S. its highest average effective tariff rate since 1972. The escalating trade tensions set the stage for a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for the end of March. Beijing has conducted a "full assessment" of the Supreme Court's ruling and has called on Washington to reverse what it deems "unilateral tariff measures." Trade data from 2025 showed a significant drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with American businesses and consumers bearing the majority of the tariff costs. [cite:
