Oil spikes above $100
Markets jumped quickly after the Gulf escalation, with oil rising above $100 a barrel as fears of military disruption and rerouting grew. Supertankers reportedly made precautionary U‑turns, signalling that insurers and shipping routes are tightening before any formal closure of the waterway. (indianexpress.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Oil jumped back above $100 a barrel early Monday, April 13, after United States-Iran talks ended without a deal and Washington said the Navy would begin blockading Iranian-linked shipping. (usnews.com) Reuters reported Brent crude rose about 8% to $102.80 a barrel at 2310 Greenwich Mean Time, while United States West Texas Intermediate reached $104.88. President Donald Trump said on Sunday, April 12, that the blockade would start immediately after talks in Islamabad failed. (usnews.com) The market reaction was not just about barrels already at sea. Reuters reported two empty supertankers, Agios Fanourios I and Shalamar, made late U-turns near Iran’s Larak island on April 12, while a third vessel, Mombasa B, continued through. (alarabiya.net) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The International Energy Agency said the strait carried about 20 million barrels a day in 2025, roughly one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. (iea.org) That is why even partial disruption moves prices fast. The United States Energy Information Administration said chokepoints like Hormuz can raise shipping costs and delay supply even without a full closure, because there are few practical alternatives. (eia.gov) The alternatives are limited in size. The International Energy Agency estimated only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day can be rerouted through pipelines that bypass Hormuz, far below the roughly 20 million barrels a day that normally pass through the waterway. (iea.org) The exposure is heaviest in Asia. The International Energy Agency said about 80% of oil moving through Hormuz is destined for Asian buyers, and China and India together received 44% of the crude exports that passed through the strait in 2025. (iea.org) Gas markets are tied to the same route. The International Energy Agency said about 93% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports and 96% of the United Arab Emirates’ liquefied natural gas exports move through Hormuz, equal to about 19% of global liquefied natural gas trade. (iea.org) Not every tanker has stopped moving. Reuters reported three loaded supertankers exited the Gulf on Saturday, April 11, a sign that some operators are still sailing while others wait for clearer military and insurance conditions. (msn.com) For now, the price above $100 reflects a shipping risk as much as a supply loss. As long as ships keep turning back, traders will keep treating Hormuz as a live military chokepoint instead of a normal trade route. (eia.gov)
