Analysts warn oil could top $134/barrel as Gulf hostilities raise near-term risk

Oil is doing that thing again where one headline says “more supply is coming” and the next says “prices could still rip higher.” Both are true. OPEC+ just agreed to raise June output again, but traders are still pricing in the chance that fighting around the Gulf could choke off the barrels that actually matter most in the short run. That is why you get scary forecasts like $134 a barrel even when producers are technically opening the taps. ### Why are people talking about $134? Because the market is not just trading supply on paper. It is trading the risk that real cargoes get delayed, rerouted, or trapped. Analysts started floating triple-digit upside scenarios after the latest escalation around Iran and the Gulf raised fresh fears about tanker traffic and export infrastructure. Brent had already jumped above $100 in March during the worst of the Hormuz disruption, and some desks argued that a renewed squeeze could push prices much higher from there. Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much? Because this is the chokepoint. A huge share of globally traded crude and fuels moves through that narrow waterway. If ships slow down, insurance costs jump, or owners refuse to sail, the market feels it immediately. The catch is that oil does not need a full blockade to spike — even partial disruption can hit prompt prices hard, because refiners buy physical barrels on tight timelines, not on theoretical long-run averages. Yes. On May 3, 2025, the eight OPEC+ countries making voluntary cuts agreed to raise June output by another 411,000 barrels a day. That was the second straight accelerated increase, and it extended a rollback that had already surprised traders. In a calm market, that kind of move would usually lean bearish because it adds near-term supply and signals the group is willing to tolerate lower prices. Because not all barrels are equal. An extra OPEC+ quota increase helps on the margin, but it does not instantly replace disrupted Gulf exports if ships cannot move cleanly through Hormuz. Think of it like opening more checkout lanes while the store’s front door is jammed — capacity exists, but the flow is still broken. That is why geopolitical risk can overwhelm bearish fundamentals for stretches of time. and that matters. The more grounded view from big research shops is still that oil eventually drifts lower if the conflict cools and physical flows normalize. JPMorgan’s broader 2026 view, for example, stayed far below those panic numbers because soft supply-demand fundamentals still point to a looser market over time. Basically, $134 is a stress-case headline for renewed disruption, not the market’s central forecast. A fresh interruption in Gulf exports, more attacks on shipping, or a collapse in the ceasefire path. Traders would also watch for longer vessel queues, rising freight and insurance costs, and signs that refiners are scrambling for prompt cargoes. Once the market starts bidding for immediate barrels, front-month crude can gap up fast even if longer-dated contracts stay calmer. Gasoline, diesel, airline fuel, shipping, and eventually food and goods prices. The pass-through is not one-to-one, but a sustained oil spike works like a tax on consumers and businesses. That is why this story is bigger than a commodity chart — it is really about whether a regional conflict turns into a broader inflation shock. stuck in a tug of war. OPEC+ is adding barrels, which should cool prices