Record Equities-Trading Quarter
JPMorgan, Goldman and Morgan Stanley are poised to report a combined record in equities-trading revenue this quarter as geopolitical volatility and client activity spiked. Bloomberg estimates the three banks could post about $18 billion in equities-trading revenue, reflecting elevated client flow and hedging demand that benefits market-making businesses. That divergence between headline risk and trading P&L is a clear reminder that volatility can be a revenue engine for intermediation desks. (bloomberg.com)
Wall Street’s biggest stock-trading desks can make more money when markets get jumpy, and Bloomberg estimates JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are about to show roughly $18 billion of combined equities-trading revenue for the quarter that ended in March 2026. Goldman alone is estimated at about $4.79 billion, with Morgan Stanley near $4.67 billion, ahead of earnings reports that begin the week of April 13. (bloomberg.com) That sounds backward until you remember what these desks do all day: they stand in the middle between buyers and sellers, quote prices, and help clients hedge risk when prices are moving fast. More client orders, more hedges, and wider bid-ask spreads can all lift revenue for market-making businesses even when the headlines are ugly. (bloomberg.com) The setup did not come out of nowhere. In first quarter 2025, JPMorgan said markets revenue hit $9.7 billion and called equities a record, while Goldman later reported equity-trading revenue of $4.19 billion, up 27% from a year earlier. (jpmorganchase.com, bloomberg.com) This quarter looks bigger because the shocks were bigger. J.P. Morgan Asset Management says first quarter 2026 saw conflict in the Middle East damage energy infrastructure and effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent oil up 63% in March and rattling equity markets well beyond energy stocks. (am.jpmorgan.com) Banks do not need markets to go up to win these trades. They need pension funds, hedge funds, asset managers, and companies to keep adjusting positions, and sharp swings in oil, currencies, rates, and stock indexes usually force that kind of activity. (bloomberg.com, msci.com) That is why volatility can be bad for investors and good for intermediaries at the same time. The St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that the tariff shock in spring 2025 drove a sharp temporary rise in market volatility, and MSCI said tariff-related uncertainty pushed investors toward more hedging through derivatives. (stlouisfed.org, msci.com) The contrast inside bank earnings is usually stark. Trading desks can post record quarters while investment banking slows, because chief executives delay mergers or stock listings when prices are whipsawing, but portfolio managers still have to trade through the chaos every day. (cnbc.com, cnbc.com) Bloomberg says the projected total for these three banks is more than double what the five biggest United States trading banks generated a decade ago, which shows how much larger and more central equities franchises have become since the post-financial-crisis years. The modern version of a trading desk is less about taking giant one-way bets and more about being a toll collector on a very busy highway. (bloomberg.com) The next test is whether this quarter was a one-off burst or the new baseline for 2026. JPMorgan has already scheduled first-quarter 2026 earnings for April 14, 2026, and Goldman was expected to report the following week, which means the estimates will turn into hard numbers within days. (jpmorganchase.com, bloomberg.com)
