AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial Day travelers

AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25, setting a Memorial Day weekend record. The group said the 2026 forecast is slightly above the 44.8 million travelers it estimated for the same holiday in 2025. Road trips account for the largest share, with 39.1 million people expected to drive, while 3.66 million are projected to fly domestically. AAA said another 2.2 million travelers are expected to use buses, trains or cruises. ### How big is the increase from last year? AAA said the 2026 projection is about 0.4% above last year’s 44.8 million Memorial Day travelers. The organization said this year’s total would be a new record for the holiday period, even with fuel prices running higher than they were a year ago. The May 21-25 travel window used by AAA covers people traveling 50 miles or more from home. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA Mid-States said its forecast was finalized the week of April 13 and covers domestic leisure travel only, adding that its numbers should not be compared directly with TSA passenger screening totals. ### Why are so many people still expected to drive? (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said 39.1 million people, or about 87% of all Memorial Day travelers, are expected to go by car. Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said in the group’s release that Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer and gives many Americans a three-day weekend. (midstates.aaa.com) AAA said gas prices are higher than they were over Memorial Day weekend last year, but it still expects driving to dominate. The Hill, citing AAA, said pump prices are the highest they have been since 2022. ### What does AAA say about flying? AAA said 3.66 million people are expected to fly domestically over the holiday period. (midstates.aaa.com) That would be up 0.3% from a year earlier, according to coverage citing the forecast. Yahoo reported that domestic round-trip airfare was averaging about $800, and AOL carried the same figure. (inrix.com) AAA’s own release said average ticket prices for flights are lower than last year for travelers who booked early. The release did not give a systemwide fare figure in the text surfaced by search results, but it did say air travel is projected to rise slightly from 2025. ### When will the roads be most crowded? INRIX traffic guidance distributed with AAA’s Memorial Day travel outlook said the worst congestion is expected on Thursday and Friday afternoons. (yahoo.com) Axios, citing INRIX data, said travelers should avoid the road on Thursday and Friday afternoon if possible. NBC’s Memorial Day travel coverage, also citing AAA, said heavy traffic and crowded airports are likely across the holiday stretch. (midstates.aaa.com) That report listed the same Thursday, May 21 through Monday, May 25 period as the core travel window. ### What comes next for travelers? (axios.com) Thursday, May 21, is the start of AAA’s Memorial Day travel period, and Monday, May 25, is the final day in the forecast window. AAA and INRIX have published trip-planning guidance for drivers, while airlines and airports will handle the 3.66 million domestic flyers projected for the holiday period. (newsroom.aaa.com) (nbclosangeles.com)