Alexander Stubb urges NATO allies to adopt 40–60 conventional‑forces burden share

Finland President Alexander Stubb said Europe should take on more of NATO’s conventional defense burden while the United States keeps key strategic roles. (brookings.edu) (carleton.ca) Speaking at Brookings on April 13, Stubb said NATO is moving “from 60-40 to 40-60, so U.S.-Europe,” and said the shift should happen “slowly, surely, and systematically.” (brookings.edu) He made the same case during a Canada trip on April 14-15, when he met Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa and then appeared at Carleton University for a public discussion on “Rebalancing the World Order in an Age of Fragmentation.” (presidentti.fi) (carleton.ca) Stubb’s argument is that Europe should build up the tanks, troops, ammunition and other conventional capabilities closest to the battlefield. He has paired that with a narrower U.S. role centered on strategic enablers such as nuclear deterrence and intelligence. (brookings.edu) That message lands as NATO allies are already debating a more “European NATO” and higher defense spending targets after the alliance’s 2025 Hague summit. Atlantic Council’s summary of a July 2025 Stubb appearance said allies agreed to spend 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense and defense-related projects over time. (atlanticcouncil.org) Finland has become one of the clearest voices for that rebalancing since joining NATO in April 2023, ending decades of military non-alignment after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Brookings described Finland as a crucial player in Northern European security because it shares Europe’s longest land border with Russia. (brookings.edu) Stubb has tied the burden-sharing case to the war in Ukraine. Aviation Week reported on April 23 that he said Russia took about 1 percent of Ukrainian territory in 2025 at a cost of roughly 400,000 casualties, underscoring his view that Moscow is paying heavily for limited gains. (aviationweek.com) He has also argued that Europe must keep filling gaps in aid to Kyiv if U.S. support becomes less predictable. In a July 2025 Atlantic Council event, Stubb said Europeans “have to take more of the burden” of supporting Ukraine and supply weapons where Americans leave gaps. (atlanticcouncil.org) In Ottawa, Stubb and Carney issued a joint statement on April 14 saying Canada and Finland would deepen defense cooperation through information sharing, training and interoperability, while also launching negotiations on a security-of-information agreement. (presidentti.fi) The through line in Stubb’s recent speeches is that NATO is not shrinking, but redistributing work inside the alliance. His formula is a Europe that carries more of the conventional load without severing the U.S. strategic backstop. (brookings.edu)