Glaser: polarization helps Beijing
Foreign-policy expert Bonnie Glaser warned in a recent social post that deepening political polarization in Taiwan is eroding public trust in institutions and playing to China’s advantage. (x.com) Her message circulated widely in that thread — the post showed visible engagement metrics cited in the discussion (dozens of likes and thousands of views). (x.com)
Bonnie Glaser said Taiwan’s political polarization is eroding trust in state institutions and giving Beijing an opening in a period of rising cross-strait pressure. (foreignpolicy.com) Glaser, the managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, made the argument in an April 10 Foreign Policy essay co-written with Jennifer Lan after posting similar warnings on social media. In that essay, they wrote that Taiwan’s presidency and legislature are locked in “procedural combat,” with budget bills stalled and the Constitutional Court “effectively paralyzed.” (foreignpolicy.com) The standoff traces back to Taiwan’s January 13, 2024 elections. Lai Ching-te won the presidency with 40.05 percent of the vote, but his Democratic Progressive Party took 51 of 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, behind the Kuomintang’s 52 and short of a majority. (globaltaiwan.org) That split government turned into a fight over budgets, court appointments, and the balance of power between the cabinet and parliament. Brookings wrote that Lai’s supporters accused opposition lawmakers of obstructing defense funding, while Kuomintang lawmakers said they were exercising fiscal oversight and protecting taxpayers. (brookings.edu) The security piece is not abstract. On April 8, United States Senator Jim Banks urged Taiwan’s parliament to pass a stalled special defense budget, after Lai proposed about United States $40 billion in extra defense spending over eight years to counter pressure from China. (usnews.com) At the same time, Beijing has kept up military and political pressure. Reuters reported on April 10 that Taiwan was tracking increased Chinese naval activity and military pressure even as Beijing promoted a message of “peace and cooperation” in meetings with Taiwan’s opposition leader. (msn.com) Xi Jinping sharpened that message in Beijing. Reuters reported that Xi told Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun on April 10 that China would “absolutely not tolerate” Taiwan independence. (msn.com) Taiwan’s court fight has added to the sense of institutional breakdown. Focus Taiwan reported on July 25, 2025 that opposition lawmakers rejected all seven of Lai’s justice nominees, extending a Constitutional Court paralysis that had already lasted months. (focustaiwan.tw) Voters have also shown fatigue with the fight rather than rallying behind one side. In the first round of recall voting on July 26, 2025, all 24 targeted Kuomintang lawmakers kept their seats, and Brookings said the result left Taiwan’s divided government intact. (brookings.edu) Glaser’s warning lands in that gap between Taiwan’s electoral strength and its governing strain: a democracy still holding competitive elections, but struggling to move budgets, fill courts, and present a united front as China presses harder. (foreignpolicy.com)
