Indian Markets Dip, But Fundamentals Strong
Indian markets opened weak following geopolitical tensions, but economic indicators remain strong, according to The Core Report. Despite risks of rising oil prices, India's Q3 GDP growth hit 7.8%, and February saw $2.4B in foreign portfolio investment—the highest in 17 months—buoyed by a US-India trade deal and strong earnings.
The recent market dip is linked to escalating US-Iran tensions, which threaten the Strait of Hormuz—the transit route for nearly 50% of India's crude imports. A sustained $10 per barrel price increase inflates India's annual import bill by over $13 billion, directly squeezing margins for oil marketing and aviation companies. The strong 7.8% Q3 GDP growth figure was the first released under a new data series with an updated 2022-23 base year, which revised the full-year FY26 growth forecast upward to 7.6%. This resilience comes after a net FPI withdrawal of ₹1.66 lakh crore in 2025, with the recent February buying spree following three consecutive months of heavy selling. The US-India trade deal reduces the "reciprocal" tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, a move expected to add an incremental 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. In return, India "intends" to purchase over $500 billion in US energy and tech, a term softened from a binding "commitment," suggesting the target is more aspirational. Investor confidence in the startup ecosystem is rebounding, with firms raising $1.2 billion in February 2026—a 2.2x increase from the previous year. The funding winter has shifted focus, with VCs now prioritizing governance, clear profitability paths, and backing deep-tech and AI startups, including those in emerging Tier-II hubs like Jaipur and Indore. For GTM teams, the focus is shifting from generic intent data to signal-based ABM, using triggers like funding announcements, new hires, or competitor tech usage to time outreach. AI-powered GTM tools are being used to automate this signal detection and orchestrate personalized outbound sequences, with AI-based lead scoring shown to improve conversion rates by 20-30%. In the HR tech space—the target market for many API-first companies—the key 2026 trend is the move from generative to "agentic" AI that automates workflows like candidate screening and onboarding. With India's Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act now fully enforceable, HR teams require systems with integrated "Consent Managers," creating a significant compliance-driven opportunity for tech vendors.
