Oil jumps past $80 a barrel after attacks on commercial vessels

Brent crude pushed above $80 a barrel this week after attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz reopened fears about the security of one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. The move came after President Donald Trump said on July 8 that the memorandum of understanding with Iran was “over,” and after U.S. forces launched fresh strikes that Washington said were a response to attacks on three commercial vessels. (kitco.com) Traders moved quickly to price in the risk of disrupted tanker traffic, a wider military exchange and delays to a shipping recovery that had only recently begun. ### Why did oil move so fast? July 8 was the trigger for the biggest jump because the market had to absorb both physical shipping risk and a collapse in the diplomatic framework that had helped cool prices after last month’s truce. (maersk.com) Reuters reported Brent crude futures were up more than 4% at $77.30 a barrel at 1231 GMT and had hit their highest level since June 22; other outlets reported the benchmark later moved above $80 as the session developed. Trump’s statement that the Iran memorandum was “over” added to the move because it suggested the 60-day negotiation window brokered last month was no longer containing the conflict. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said the market was being forced to price the risk that renewed attacks on shipping, or a broader breakdown in U.S.-Iran relations, could slow the normalization of flows through Hormuz. (kitco.com) ### What exactly happened to the ships? UKMTO, the British maritime security monitor, said on July 6 that a tanker 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman, was hit by an unknown projectile on its port side, causing a fire. The agency said there were no casualties or environmental impact in that incident and advised vessels to transit with caution. (kitco.com) CNBC reported on July 7 that Qatar said Iran attacked the Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker Al‑Rekayyat near the strait. CNBC also cited UKMTO as saying another tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile and suffered structural damage. U.S. Central Command then said U.S. strikes were launched in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. (kitco.com) CBS reported that Washington described the operation as retaliation for those attacks, and later said the U.S. began a second night of strikes on July 8. ### Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much? (ukmto.org) The Strait of Hormuz matters because it carried about one-fifth of global energy supply before the war began in late February, according to Reuters. When traders think that route may become unsafe, they immediately reprice crude, tanker insurance and near-term supply risk. (cnbc.com) At least four oil and gas tankers turned back from attempts to transit the strait, Reuters reported, citing ship-tracking data. Reuters also said Brent’s three-month timespread widened to $2.36 a barrel and moved deeper into backwardation, a market structure that usually points to tighter prompt supply. (msn.com) ### Why are the Red Sea and Suez Canal part of this story too? Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said on July 6 that one Gemini service, AE15, would return to the trans-Suez route after security assessments in the Red Sea. That was one of the clearest signs that some shipping companies thought conditions had improved enough to begin restoring normal patterns after Houthi attacks had pushed carriers around the Cape of Good Hope. (kitco.com) CBS reported that European diplomacy is now focused on preserving freedom of navigation in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. That matters for oil and container markets alike because the two waterways sit on the same broader trade corridor linking Gulf energy exports with Suez traffic toward Europe. (kitco.com) ### What comes next for the market and shipping companies? July 9 opens with traders watching whether more tankers delay or reroute voyages through Hormuz and whether benchmark crude can hold near or above $80 a barrel. Reuters reported that HSBC has already cut its 2026 Brent forecast to $80 from $95 on the assumption Gulf exports normalize by the end of September, a view now under renewed pressure. (maersk.com) The next concrete markers are official incident notices from UKMTO, statements from U.S. Central Command and routing decisions by companies including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. Those updates will show whether the latest attacks remain isolated or begin to alter traffic through Hormuz and the Red Sea more broadly. (cbsnews.com) (ukmto.org) (kitco.com)