Memory shortage looks structural
Industry coverage says high RAM prices may be the "new normal," with Q4'25 results showing AI suppliers booming while auto and industrial segments still correct — meaning distributors face sustained price pressure and uneven demand across end markets. Inventory narratives point to strong revenue but continued lead‑time and pricing volatility for memory. (globalnews.ca) (x.com)
SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won said the global memory shortage could extend through 2030, framing the tightness as a multi‑year structural issue rather than a short cycle. (networkworld.com) Global semiconductor sales climbed 26.2% in 2025 to USD 795.6 billion, with Q4 revenues at USD 238.9 billion — figures that underscore how data‑center and AI spending powered industry growth in late 2025. (wsts.org) Contract DRAM and NAND prices jumped in Q4 2025 — analyst tallies put DRAM increases broadly in the mid‑teens to as high as 30% and NAND up roughly 10–20% depending on configuration. (trendforce.com) Hyperscalers have paid premiums and seen partial fills of orders, with reporting that some server DRAM spot deals rose as much as 50% while fulfillment rates fell to about 70% for certain customers. (tomshardware.com) Micron, Samsung and SK hynix have shifted more capacity toward HBM and AI‑grade memory; Micron said HBM and cloud‑related memory rose from about 17% of its DRAM revenue in 2023 to nearly 50% by 2025. (ieee.org) Only Samsung, SK hynix and Micron currently possess the wafer‑level and 3D‑stacking scale needed for next‑generation HBM (HBM4), concentrating advanced capacity in just three suppliers. (theregister.com) Q4 2025 results show the split: Samsung posted record quarterly revenue (about KRW 93.8 trillion) and profit growth driven by memory, SK hynix reported record FY25 revenue and operating profit, and Micron closed a record fiscal Q4 — all signalling supplier margins expanding even as some end markets lag. (cnbc.com) (prnewswire.com) (globenewswire.com) Distributor metrics and lead‑time surveys for Q4 2025 recorded continued long lead times and pricing volatility for memory while automotive and industrial semiconductor consumption showed weakness (NXP reported a ~6% decline in auto consumption and some OEMs remain overstocked), creating uneven demand across end markets. (sourceability.com) (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
