Oil spikes — Hormuz risk
Brent crude has surged above $100/Barrel — up about 51% since the start of March — as Middle East conflict stokes supply fears and inflationary pressure on fuel prices. (ibtimes.com.au) Houthi attacks — two on Israel in the past day — and threats to the Strait of Hormuz/Bab al‑Mandab have analysts warning shipping disruption could remove millions of barrels/day from market, and importers like India are already pivoting to Russian supplies. (theguardian.com) (youtube.com)
Front-month Brent futures are trading in deep backwardation, with the six‑month Brent calendar spread widening to roughly $25 per barrel earlier in March — a record on many market charts. (thetradable.com) The International Energy Agency says crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged from about 20 million barrels per day to a trickle and that Gulf producers have cut at least 10 million barrels per day of output. (iea.org) War‑risk and hull premiums for tankers trading in the Gulf have exploded — brokers and insurers report new war‑risk quotes jumping to around 3% of hull value with some bespoke quotes effectively pricing at 10% of hull value and running into double‑digit millions of dollars per voyage. (insurancejournal.com) Major carriers have rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 10–14 days to voyages, and Cape Town has recorded a roughly 112% increase in diverted traffic while commercial transits through Hormuz have fallen by about 90%. (themiddleeastinsider.com) Yemen’s Houthi forces launched ballistic‑missile and drone strikes on southern Israel on March 27–28 that Israel’s air‑defence systems intercepted, and analysts note those strikes broaden the geographic footprint of the conflict beyond the Gulf itself. (understandingwar.org) Indian refiners have booked roughly 60 million barrels of Russian crude for April delivery and tanker‑tracking shows Russian shipments to India hit about 1.5 million barrels per day in March, aided by a U.S. license that temporarily allows some Russian cargoes bound for India. (bloomberg.com)
