Gulf freight risk rises
- Recent regional strikes and tensions have elevated risk on shipping routes through the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. - Social estimates suggest freight and insurance costs could rise about 5%, with a single missile event risking roughly $200 million in cargo losses. - Analysts warn Hormuz diversions and port congestion are already raising trucking costs and creating knock-on logistics delays ( ).
Shipping through the Gulf has become more expensive and less predictable as attacks and military warnings keep vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz. (apnews.com) The Joint Maritime Information Center said on April 12 that the maritime threat level across the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman remained “critical.” It counted 29 confirmed maritime attacks or suspicious incidents since March 1 and said observed traffic in the strait had fallen to four vessels in the prior 24 hours, versus a historical average of about 138 a day. (ukmto.org) By April 20, the disruption was still worsening. The Associated Press and The New York Times reported that tankers were stranded or turning back after new violence, and Lloyd’s List said vessel operations in Bahrain remained limited while BAPCO operations were suspended. (apnews.com, nytimes.com, lloydslist.com) Insurers price this kind of danger voyage by voyage. Argus reported on April 14 that war-risk cover was still available in many cases, but at higher cost and with tighter conditions, and that premiums can change daily when a route is treated as a high-risk area. (argusmedia.com) That matters far beyond shipowners because the strait is one of the world’s main trade chokepoints. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade moves through Hormuz, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the passage carried about 20 million barrels a day in 2024, equal to roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. (unctad.org, eia.gov) When ships slow, wait offshore or divert, the bill spreads inland. Maersk said on April 17 that navigation and port operations in and around Hormuz were still being affected and that it was offering temporary detention relief and contingency measures for cargo tied to impacted ports. (maersk.com) Analysts are also tracking second-order costs that do not show up in a tanker headline. Everstream Analytics said on April 1 that the closure had already severely disrupted global ocean shipping, a pattern that typically feeds port congestion, equipment shortages and higher trucking and warehousing bills as cargo arrives late and in bunches. (everstream.ai) Fuel is another pressure point. Lloyd’s List reported on April 20 that bunker prices had retreated from their March peak but were still about 70% above prewar levels, adding another surcharge to already elevated insurance and freight costs. (lloydslist.com) The immediate question is no longer whether Hormuz can reopen for a few hours or a day. Carriers, insurers and cargo owners are waiting for a stretch of traffic that is both open and safe enough to price, schedule and move freight normally again. (argusmedia.com, apnews.com)
