90‑day tariff 'ceasefire'

Officials are framing the tariff rollback as a 90-day pause, not a peace treaty, after a U.S.-China deal cut the latest retaliatory duties and set a clock for more talks. (whitehouse.gov) The May 12, 2025 agreement said both sides would lower tariffs by 115 percentage points and keep a 10% rate during the pause, with the changes taking effect by May 14. The White House said earlier Section 301, Section 232, fentanyl-related, and most-favored-nation duties would stay in place. (whitehouse.gov) That left the United States with a 30% tariff stack on many Chinese goods during the truce: a 10% reciprocal baseline plus a 20% fentanyl-related duty. China said it would suspend its initial 34% tariff for 90 days and retain a 10% tariff during the same period. (whitehouse.gov) (cnbc.com) The pause came after President Donald Trump’s April 2, 2025 “reciprocal tariff” order and an April 9 order that raised pressure on China after Beijing announced an 84% tariff on U.S. goods effective April 10. Those April orders turned a tariff fight into a rapid escalation cycle in one week. (whitehouse.gov) Congressional Research Service said the administration spent the rest of 2025 negotiating tariff frameworks with multiple partners and announced a series of temporary tariff truces with China. Its January 12, 2026 timeline still listed a global reciprocal tariff regime of 10% to 41%, by country of origin, on most goods, with exceptions. (congress.gov) That is why the current language around a “pause,” “ceasefire,” or possible extension matters less than the structure underneath it. The baseline tariffs and earlier sectoral duties remained in force, so import costs did not return to pre-April 2025 levels. (whitehouse.gov) (congress.gov) The International Monetary Fund entered its April 2026 meetings warning that the world economy was already dealing with “major trade disruptions and policy uncertainty” before the Middle East war added a new shock. In its April 14 outlook, the Fund projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and said renewed trade tensions could further weaken growth and unsettle markets. (imf.org 1) (imf.org 2) The Fund’s warning does not say this tariff pause caused the 2026 slowdown by itself. It says higher trade barriers, uncertainty, and any renewed trade tensions were already part of a weaker backdrop before energy prices jumped in the latest war shock. (imf.org 1) (imf.org 2) Markets treated the original May 2025 deal as a de-escalation step, with Reuters reporting that stocks and the dollar surged after the announcement. But a 90-day truce is a negotiating device: it lowers the temperature, keeps leverage in place, and leaves the threat of another tariff jump if talks stall. (usnews.com) So the cleanest way to read the “ceasefire” is this: the tariff war cooled, the tariff system stayed, and the countdown for the next decision never really stopped. (whitehouse.gov) (congress.gov)