Restaurants under pressure

Half of Texas restaurant operators did not make a profit in 2025, according to reporting on National Restaurant Association data, even before you get to the strange part: Houston is still adding splashy new places in April, from Simone Biles’s Taste of Gold at George Bush Intercontinental Airport to Osteria di Mercato in West University. (tpr.org) (houstoniamag.com) That split screen is the restaurant business in 2026: one set of operators is fighting to keep the lights on, while another is betting that the right neighborhood, the right landlord deal, or the right celebrity name can still fill seats. The National Restaurant Association says United States restaurant sales could reach $1.55 trillion this year even as operators report a “challenging business environment.” (restaurant.org) The squeeze starts with labor, which is usually the biggest line on a restaurant’s bill after food. The National Restaurant Association says salaries, wages, and benefits took a median 36.5 percent of sales at full-service restaurants in 2024, up from about 33 percent in earlier editions of its operations report. (restaurant.org) Food costs are still climbing too, and Texas operators say they are feeling that in bulk orders, proteins, and imported ingredients. In the Texas Restaurant Association’s October 31, 2025 economics report, 88 percent of Texas restaurants said food costs were higher and 66 percent said labor costs were higher. (txrestaurant.org) Then there are credit-card swipe fees, which hit every burger, coffee, and takeout tab paid with plastic. Texas restaurant owners told local outlets this spring that those processing charges are landing on top of inflation, and the Texas Restaurant Association said in November 2025 that fees on a $100 check can eat more than half of a restaurant’s profit. (tpr.org) (spectrumlocalnews.com) The customer side is getting weaker at the same time the cost side gets heavier. The Texas Restaurant Association said 52 percent of operators saw traffic decrease in its third-quarter 2025 report, and the National Restaurant Association says tighter household budgets are hitting low- and middle-income diners especially hard in 2026. (txrestaurant.org) (restaurant.org) That is why openings have not stopped, but they are getting more selective. New projects are clustering in places with built-in traffic like airports, mixed-use developments, and affluent neighborhoods, which is exactly where Houston’s April openings are landing. (houstoniamag.com) (tpr.org) Simone Biles’s Taste of Gold is opening at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, where passengers function like a captive lunch crowd and the airport delivers a steady stream of first-time customers. Birdie’s Icehouse is opening at East River 9, tying a restaurant to a golf and entertainment complex instead of asking it to survive on dinner traffic alone. (houstoniamag.com) Osteria di Mercato is a different kind of bet: a 30-seat Italian restaurant in West University, where a small room can work if the check average is high enough and the tables stay full. Reporting on the opening described a recent menu with 17 items, including braised rabbit fettuccine and saffron arancini, which is not the kind of menu built for bargain hunting. (europesays.com) So the Texas restaurant story right now is not “restaurants are closing” or “restaurants are booming.” It is that the middle is getting squeezed hardest, and the survivors are either scaling for volume, chasing premium diners, or opening in places where the foot traffic is already there. (tpr.org) (restaurant.org)