Cocoa prices: winners and losers
Cocoa markets are volatile — favorable weather in Ivory Coast has lifted a mid‑crop and supported prices, while a global surplus has driven Cameroon farm prices down as much as 75% ( ). The collapse in Cameroon has left many growers unpaid, prompting some to sell land or switch to illegal gold mining amid mounting debts and delayed payments (businessincameroon.com).
Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council sold more than 400,000 tonnes of 2025/26 export contracts to local grinders over 10 days after mid‑crop purchases resumed, and exporters’ group GEPEX — including Barry Callebaut, Olam and Cargill — agreed a solution with the regulator. (cnbcafrica.com) The International Cocoa Organization revised its 2024/25 balance to a 75,000‑tonne surplus and now estimates global production at 4.728 million tonnes versus world grindings of 4.606 million tonnes. (icco.org) ICE/London and NY benchmark activity shows certified inventories at multi‑month highs — roughly 2.2–2.3 million bags in March — while contract prices traded near $3,200–$3,300/tonne, about 58–59% below year‑earlier levels. (tradingeconomics.com) Cameroon’s National Cocoa and Coffee Board quoted CAF at 1,817 XAF/kg and FOB at 1,760 XAF/kg on March 16, 2026, with Douala farm‑gate purchases reported at XAF1,100–1,200/kg versus peaks of XAF5,000–6,000/kg in 2023–24. (businessincameroon.com) On the ground, Cameroonian sources report farmers abandoning plots or felling cocoa trees to plant food crops as incomes evaporate, and regional reporting documents parallel moves across West Africa — including Ghana and Ivory Coast — where some growers are leasing or selling land to miners or repurposing farms for mining and sand extraction. (businessincameroon.com / apnews.com) Governments and industry are already adjusting: Ghana cut its official producer price by nearly 30% and Ivory Coast trimmed mid‑crop pay sharply (the CCC set a lower mid‑crop rate to spur sales), moves that aim to clear stocks but leave producers exposed if demand remains weak. (barchart.com / cnbcafrica.com)
