Trump arrives in Beijing, pressing Xi to revive U.S. energy exports

Energy is the easiest thing for Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to put on the table in Beijing — and one of the hardest things to actually move. Trump arrived for May 14–15 talks with a broad agenda, but one concrete idea traveling with him is a deal that gets China buying more U.S. oil and gas again. That matters because energy trade is measurable, politically visible, and easier to announce than a real settlement on chips, Taiwan, or industrial policy. But the catch is that tariffs and geopolitics have already broken the old flow. ### Why is energy even in this meeting? Because it gives both sides something tangible. Beijing can signal that it is willing to stabilize ties without reopening the whole trade war. Washington can point to export gains, Gulf Coast jobs, and a smaller bilateral trade gap. And unlike semiconductors, energy is a commodity business — if the politics clear, cargoes can move fast. (msn.com) ### What exactly broke? Tariffs did. China’s current duties stack up across major U.S. energy products: 25% on LNG, 20% on crude, 11% on propane and ethane, and roughly 28% to 31% on coal depending on grade. Those rates make U.S. cargoes much less competitive against supply from the Middle East, Russia, Australia, and elsewhere. So the trade did not just slow down — in oil and LNG, it mostly seized up. (money.usnews.com) ### How big was this business before the freeze? Bigger than it sounds. Chinese imports of U.S. oil and LNG were worth $8.4 billion in 2024, before Trump’s second-term trade escalation shut down most of that flow. That is not enough to transform the entire U.S.-China relationship, but it is large enough to matter for LNG terminals, shale producers, tanker traffic, and state-level politics in energy-exporting parts of the U.S. (money.usnews.com) ### Why would China want U.S. energy again? Partly price, partly flexibility. China likes having multiple suppliers because energy security is really about optionality — not relying too heavily on any one route or country. U.S. LNG and crude are useful swing barrels. They also fit a familiar pattern in U.S.-China bargaining, where Beijing agrees to buy more commodities because purchases are easier to dial up than structural economic reforms. (money.usnews.com) ### So is this basically a tariff rollback? Maybe in practice, yes, even if nobody brands it that way. A promise to buy more U.S. energy does not mean much if Chinese tariffs stay where they are. Either Beijing would need to lower duties, carve out exemptions, or direct state buyers to absorb the extra cost for political reasons. The economics do not really work otherwise. That last part is an inference from the tariff levels and the reported deal structure. (money.usnews.com) ### Why is this politically awkward for Trump? Because it cuts against his own tariff posture. If the White House wants export wins from China, it has to tolerate some version of selective relief or managed trade. That invites criticism from Republicans who prefer pressure over carveouts and from free-traders who think commodity-purchase deals are a cosmetic fix. Basically, everyone can call it inconsistent for different reasons. (money.usnews.com) ### Why not just focus on chips and tariffs instead? Because those issues are much harder. AI-chip controls, Taiwan, industrial subsidies, and military tensions all touch national security. Energy does not solve any of that, but it can create a headline both leaders can live with. Think of it as the tradable, countable part of a much larger argument. (msn.com) ### Bottom line? If Trump gets Xi to restart meaningful Chinese buying of U.S. energy, that would be a real commercial win. But it would not mean the trade war is over. It would mean both sides found one lane — narrow, transactional, and easier to sell at home — where a thaw is still possible. (money.usnews.com) (al-monitor.com)