Baloch attacks threaten Reko Diq deal

Copper mines are supposed to be long-horizon bets. You spend years lining up permits, financing, roads, power, and political support before you get anything out of the ground. That makes security part of the economics — and right now that is the weak point at Reko Diq, a huge copper-and-gold project in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Barrick, the Canadian miner leading the project, said on April 2 that it was slowing development and extending its review until mid-2027 because security risks in Pakistan and the wider region had worsened. ### What is Reko Diq? Reko Diq is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold projects, in Chagai district near the borders with Iran and Afghanistan. Barrick owns 50%. The other half sits with Pakistani federal state-owned enterprises and the Balochistan government. For Pakistan, this is the marquee mining project — the one meant to prove the country can turn mineral wealth into foreign investment and export revenue. ### What changed? The project was moving toward construction, with first production previously targeted for the end of 2028. Barrick had put Phase 1 capital costs at $5.6 billion to $6.0 billion, with Phase 2 adding another $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion. But on February 5 the company began a full review, and on April 2 it said the review needed to continue until mid-2027, with development slowed and capital spending reduced. Barrick also warned the budget and timeline could rise from earlier estimates. ### Why is security the hard part? Because a mine in Balochistan is not just a hole in the ground. It needs convoys, machinery, workers, fuel, roads, and a reliable route back to the coast. If militants can hit supply lines or intimidate contractors, the project gets more expensive even before a single major facility is damaged. That is basically what investors fear — not one spectacular attack, but a steady tax of danger on everything needed to build the mine. ### Who is doing the attacking? The main threat is the Baloch Liberation Army, or BLA, a separatist group that says Balochistan’s resources are being exploited while locals stay poor and politically marginalized. U.S. government security analysis in February said the BLA’s January 31 coordinated attacks across southern Balochistan killed 30 civilians and marked a major escalation in the group’s ability to launch synchronized assaults. ### Why does Balochistan keep producing this conflict? Turns out the fight is about more than one mine. Balochistan is resource-rich but underdeveloped, and that gap has fed a decades-long insurgency. Researchers at West Point’s CTC noted that attacks intensified sharply in 2025, with BLA factions using more sophisticated tactics, including the March 2025 Jaffar Express hijacking, and increasingly targeting projects tied to outside investors. ### What is Pakistan trying to do? Pakistan is trying to harden the investment environment fast. In February, provincial officials said they were redesigning security architecture, boosting intelligence, and raising a dedicated Frontier Corps force for mineral-bearing areas and the borders with Iran and Afghanistan. That tells you the state sees Reko Diq as too important to lose — but also that the old security setup was not enough. ### Why does this matter beyond Pakistan? Because Reko Diq is not just a local mining story. It sits inside a bigger push to secure supplies of copper and other strategic minerals outside China-dominated chains. If Pakistan cannot make its flagship project buildable, the message to foreign investors is brutal: the geology may be world-class, but the operating environment is not. The mine still exists. The ore body did not disappear. But the timetable that mattered — build now, produce by 2028, prove Pakistan can host strategic mining capital — has slipped. At Reko Diq, insurgency is no longer background noise. It is part of the project model.