Mexico Faces Violence After Cartel Leader's Death
Mexico is experiencing a new wave of violence following the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. El Mencho was killed during an army-led operation, sparking violence in over 20 states. Analysts caution that while U.S. authorities supported the operation, similar actions over the past 15 years have done little to reduce long-term violence or drug flows.
- The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has diversified its criminal portfolio beyond drug trafficking to include activities that directly impact legitimate businesses, such as fuel theft from the state-owned oil company Pemex, illegal mining, and extortion. The group is also known for perpetrating timeshare fraud schemes, which have targeted American retirees in tourist areas like Puerto Vallarta, costing victims hundreds of millions of dollars. - The "kingpin strategy" of targeting cartel leaders has been a cornerstone of U.S.-Mexico security cooperation for years, but analysts note it often leads to the fragmentation of cartels and an increase in violence as factions fight for control, without significantly reducing long-term drug flows. The Mexican government under President Claudia Sheinbaum had previously criticized this approach, even as it cooperated with the U.S. on this operation. - The immediate retaliation for El Mencho's death included between 80 and 250 "narco-blockades" with burning vehicles across at least 20 Mexican states, a tactic designed to sow panic and impede security forces. The violence resulted in the deaths of at least 25 members of Mexico's National Guard and a prison guard. - Beyond the immediate disruptions, the violence poses a risk to Mexico's economy, where tourism represents about 10% of GDP. In the wake of the attacks, which heavily impacted tourist destinations like Puerto Vallarta and the World Cup host city of Guadalajara, credit rating agency AM Best issued a negative outlook for Mexico's insurance segment, citing the high political and economic risk. - The CJNG was formed around 2011 after its founders split from the Sinaloa Cartel, sparking a violent turf war. It grew to become one of Mexico's most powerful and aggressive criminal organizations, with a presence in at least 27 of 32 Mexican states and operations in over 40 countries. - The operation to kill El Mencho was conducted by Mexican special forces but utilized intelligence from the United States, including a new U.S. military-led task force called the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel. In February 2025, the Trump administration had designated the CJNG as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. - Security analysts predict El Mencho's death will likely trigger a violent internal power struggle for succession within the CJNG. This could lead to further instability and bloodshed in the territories the cartel controls as different factions vie for leadership.
