AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial travelers

AAA said 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period, setting a new weekend record and topping last year’s 44.8 million. The forecast covers Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25, according to a May 11 release from the travel group. AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to drive and 3.66 million are projected to fly. The group said higher gasoline prices have not stopped travelers from taking trips over the long weekend. ### How big is this year’s Memorial Day travel forecast? AAA said the 45 million figure is slightly above 2025 levels and marks another record for the holiday. The organization defines the Memorial Day travel period as trips of at least 50 miles from home between Thursday and Monday. Last year, AAA forecast 45.1 million domestic travelers for the comparable holiday period from May 22 to May 26, after 43.8 million in 2024. The 2026 forecast is lower than the 2025 total by a small margin, but AAA said this year still sets a Memorial Day weekend record under its current period definition and regional releases described the domestic forecast as slightly above last year. ### Why are roads expected to be the main story again? AAA said 39.1 million travelers will go by car, making driving by far the dominant mode of travel for the holiday. That compares with 3.66 million people expected to fly, according to the national forecast. Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer and gives many Americans a three-day weekend to travel. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said road trips remain popular even with gasoline prices running above last Memorial Day weekend levels. ### What did AAA say about flights and other travel? (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said 3.66 million people are expected to fly to their destinations over the holiday period. The group said average airfare was lower than a year earlier for travelers who booked early. The remaining travelers are expected to use trains, buses and cruises, though AAA’s release focused most heavily on road and air travel. (newsroom.aaa.com) The forecast is a demand snapshot rather than a real-time count, and AAA did not in the release break out expected delays by airport or carrier. ### What does the California outlook show? AAA’s Mountain West Group said in a May 11 release from Walnut Creek, California, that the domestic travel forecast for this Memorial Day is slightly higher than in 2025. The regional club also described the outlook as record-breaking despite higher fuel prices. Earlier California-specific AAA releases have shown the state regularly tracking above prior-year Memorial Day totals, with road travel making up the large majority of trips. (newsroom.aaa.com) In 2024, AAA projected 5.65 million California travelers, up from 5.4 million a year earlier, with 82% expected to drive. ### What dates should travelers watch? (mwg.aaa.com) AAA said the Memorial Day holiday travel period begins Thursday, May 21, and ends Monday, May 25. That five-day window is the basis for its national forecast and for comparisons with prior years. AAA’s forecast is already posted in its national newsroom and in regional club releases, including the Mountain West Group update issued from California on May 11. (mwg.aaa.com) Travelers looking for route-specific guidance and local traffic advisories can expect additional updates from regional AAA clubs and transportation agencies as the weekend approaches. (newsroom.aaa.com)