Chip market re‑rated
- Banks and analysts have raised semiconductor market forecasts driven by AI demand and memory price moves. (x.com) - BofA lifted the semiconductor TAM to $1.3T by 2026 and projects $2T by 2030, with Gartner also citing $1.3T revenue in 2026. (x.com) - Memory price inflation is large this cycle: DRAM climbed about 125% and NAND roughly 234%, tightening fab capacity. (x.com)
The chip market is being re-priced around artificial intelligence, with new 2026 forecasts jumping to about $1.3 trillion instead of the roughly $1 trillion many analysts expected months ago. (gartner.com) Gartner said on April 8 that worldwide semiconductor revenue should exceed $1.3 trillion in 2026, up 64% from 2025, with memory revenue expected to triple. (gartner.com) Bank of America also raised its 2026 chip-market forecast to $1.3 trillion and said the market could reach $2 trillion by 2030, implying about 20% annual growth through the rest of the decade. (finance.yahoo.com) A semiconductor is the tiny switch inside servers, phones, cars, and factory gear; the current squeeze is centered on memory chips, which store data for processors and have become a chokepoint for AI systems. (gartner.com) Gartner estimates average 2026 prices for dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, will rise 125% and NAND flash prices will rise 234%, with no meaningful relief expected until late 2027. (gartner.com) That price jump is tied to AI servers using more advanced memory and to manufacturers steering capacity toward higher-margin products, leaving less room for older PC and enterprise parts. (spglobal.com) The industry’s baseline forecast is still lower than the most bullish calls. World Semiconductor Trade Statistics projected in December 2025 that the market would reach about $975 billion in 2026, with memory and logic leading growth. (wsts.org) Chipmakers and their suppliers are already spending for that demand. SEMI said equipment sales are projected to reach $145 billion in 2026 after $125.5 billion in 2025, driven by leading-edge logic, memory, and advanced packaging for AI hardware. (prnewswire.com) The immediate test is whether AI demand stays strong enough to absorb higher memory prices through 2026. For now, the new forecasts say the industry is no longer arguing about a trillion-dollar chip market in principle, but about how fast it arrives. (gartner.com)
