China’s trade mix falters

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March while imports jumped at the fastest pace in more than four years. (english.customs.gov.cn) China’s customs data showed March exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier to $321.0 billion, down from the combined 21.8% increase in January and February. Imports climbed 27.8% to $269.9 billion, leaving total trade at $590.9 billion. (english.customs.gov.cn) The export figure missed the 8.6% growth economists polled by Reuters had expected, while imports beat an 11.2% forecast. China’s trade surplus narrowed 3% as higher import values swelled the bill for goods coming in. (cnbc.com) Trade with the United States weakened again in March. In renminbi terms, China’s exports to the United States fell 18.7% from a year earlier, while imports from the United States dropped 19.7%. (english.customs.gov.cn) The March split matters because trade has been carrying more of China’s growth than spending at home. CNBC, citing official data, said net exports accounted for about one-third of China’s economy last year. (cnbc.com) Economists still expect the first quarter to look firmer than late 2025. A Reuters poll published April 13 put first-quarter gross domestic product growth at 4.8%, up from 4.5% in the October-to-December quarter, before slowing to 4.6% for full-year 2026. (newsbreak.com) Analysts tied the March slowdown to higher energy costs and weaker overseas demand linked to the Iran war. China’s customs vice minister Wang Jun said oil prices had swung violently, and Pinpoint Asset Management economist Zhiwei Zhang said the conflict had likely weighed on demand. (cnbc.com) Some economists say the headline drop in exports may overstate the turn. Bloomberg reported that the timing of the Lunar New Year and a high base from March 2025 probably exaggerated the slowdown after exports had surged almost 40% in February. (bloomberg.com) Others say China still has support from sectors that have held up this year. The Associated Press reported that semiconductors tied to artificial intelligence demand, along with renewable energy products such as solar cells, wind turbines and electric vehicles, could keep exports steadier in coming quarters. (abcnews.com) The next test comes on April 16, when Beijing is due to publish first-quarter gross domestic product and March activity data. Those figures will show whether March trade was a one-month distortion or an earlier sign that China’s export-led cushion is thinning. (newsbreak.com)