Tariff uncertainty returns

Tariff policy is moving again, so the duty rate on paper is no longer the same thing as a stable import cost. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) The United States is currently applying a 10% temporary import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24, 2026, and scheduled to run through July 24, 2026. The White House imposed it for 150 days after the Supreme Court knocked out the administration’s earlier tariff program under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. (whitehouse.gov) Reed Smith’s tariff tracker says litigation over those Section 122 tariffs is still active, with the Court of International Trade hearing argument on April 10 in two cases challenging Proclamation 11012. The same tracker notes that a threatened increase to 15% remains on the table. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) That legal and policy churn is colliding with diplomacy. India and the United States restarted three days of trade talks in Washington on Monday, April 20, with India’s chief negotiator Darpan Jain leading a delegation of about a dozen officials. (thefederal.com) Indian officials say the two sides are reworking the framework for the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement that was released on February 7. The talks were deferred after the U.S. tariff regime changed in February. (thefederal.com; thehindubusinessline.com) The Federal reported that the earlier framework had contemplated cutting tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%, including rolling back duties tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil. That math changed when the blanket 10% Section 122 tariff replaced the old country-by-country structure. (thefederal.com) The negotiations are also unfolding under two new U.S. trade probes. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer launched Section 301 investigations on March 11 into structural excess capacity in manufacturing and on March 12 into forced-labor enforcement across 60 economies. (ustr.gov; ustr.gov) For importers, that means customs rates can change faster than contracts do. Reed Smith’s tracker says procurement teams should expect shorter quote validity, broader surcharge clauses, and supplier prices that move with each legal ruling, tariff notice, or negotiation update. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) The administration says its trade program is still intact despite the February court loss. In testimony to the House Appropriations Committee, Greer said the president kept continuity in the tariff program “within hours” by shifting to Section 122. (ustr.gov) The next signal will not be a slogan but a document: a court ruling, a revised tariff proclamation, or a rewritten India-U.S. trade text. Until one of those lands, landed cost is still a moving target. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com; thefederal.com)