ASML-China pressure

United States lawmakers moved this month to tighten China export curbs in ways that would hit ASML, the Dutch company that makes the lithography machines used to print patterns onto chips. (reuters.com) The draft bill, called the MATCH Act, was announced on April 3 by a bipartisan group in Congress. Reuters reported it would broaden restrictions on chipmaking tools sold to China, including ASML’s deep ultraviolet immersion systems, which Chinese buyers have still been able to purchase in some cases. (reuters.com) ASML shares fell after the proposal became public. Reuters reported on April 7 that analysts saw the bill as a threat to one of ASML’s last major China sales channels, even though the measure had not become law. (reuters.com) ASML sells the machines chipmakers use to etch tiny circuits onto silicon wafers. Its most advanced extreme ultraviolet machines have long been blocked from China, while the Dutch government expanded license requirements in September 2024 to cover additional deep ultraviolet immersion systems, including the TWINSCAN NXT:1970i and 1980i. (asml.com) That left older and less advanced tools as an important remaining business in China. CNBC reported on April 7 that the new United States proposal would target ASML’s deep ultraviolet machines, tightening pressure on equipment Chinese chipmakers have used for mainstream and some advanced production. (cnbc.com) China has been too large a market for ASML to treat this as a side issue. ASML’s 2025 annual report said China accounted for 29% of total sales in 2025, down from 36% in 2024, after earlier export curbs and shifting customer demand. (asml.com) ASML has already told investors to expect a smaller China business this year. CNBC reported on January 28 that the company said China revenue should account for about 20% of 2026 sales, after ASML warned in 2025 that China demand would decline significantly. (cnbc.com) The dispute also runs through Dutch sovereignty. ASML said in its September 2024 statement that, under the updated rules, it would apply for export licenses with the Dutch government rather than the United States government for certain shipments, underscoring that Washington can push allies while The Hague still issues the licenses. (asml.com) Supporters of tighter controls say China should not be able to buy allied tools that United States companies are barred from selling. Reuters reported the MATCH Act was framed as a way to keep companies in the Netherlands and Japan under restrictions similar to those faced by American rivals. (reuters.com) ASML has not publicly embraced that approach. In its annual report, the company said a growing number of Chinese entities are already restricted and warned that increasingly complex controls and possible countermeasures could disrupt customers, trade flows, and its own business. (asml.com) What happens next depends less on a social media flare-up than on whether Congress advances the bill and whether the Dutch government follows with new license limits. For ASML, the opening question remains the same: how much of its remaining China business allied governments are willing to close. (reuters.com)