Global oil stocks fall 250 million barrels

The International Energy Agency said on May 13 that global observed oil inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March and another 117 million barrels in April, a combined draw of 246 million barrels in two months. The agency linked the decline to supply losses after the war in the Middle East began and to continuing disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz. (iea.org) Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel on May 15, with ICE data showing the July 2026 Brent contract at about $106.94 in early trading. The IEA said global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 million barrels a day in April to 95.1 million barrels a day, bringing total losses since February to 12.8 million barrels a day. (livemint.com) The agency said output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 million barrels a day below pre-war levels. In India, official trade data released on May 15 showed the merchandise trade deficit widened to $28.38 billion in April as imports rose, with local media and Bloomberg reporting higher oil costs as a driver. ### How large is the stock draw, exactly? (iea.org) The IEA’s May Oil Market Report put the two-month draw at 246 million barrels, based on preliminary data for April and reported data for March. The agency said on-land stocks fell by 170 million barrels in April alone, while oil on water rebounded by 53 million barrels. OECD countries accounted for most of the April on-land decline. The IEA said OECD on-land stocks fell by 146 million barrels in April, while visible non-OECD stocks dropped by 24 million barrels. ### What is driving the decline in inventories? (iea.org) The IEA said continued disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz were draining inventories “at a record pace.” The agency said mounting supply losses more than 10 weeks after the war began were forcing consumers and refiners to draw down stored crude and products. (iea.org) Global supply losses have been concentrated in the Gulf. The IEA said April output from countries affected by the Hormuz closure remained far below pre-war levels, while higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin provided only partial relief. (iea.org) ### Where are oil prices now? ICE data on May 15 showed the front part of the Brent curve still elevated, with the July 2026 Brent contract at $106.94 a barrel and later-dated contracts above $90 through November 2026. Financial Times market data showed Brent at $107.49 in London morning trading. (iea.org) The IEA said North Sea Dated averaged $120.36 a barrel in April after rising about $16.50 month on month. The agency also said prompt time spreads in WTI and Brent futures ended April at around $5 a barrel, a sign of a tight nearby market. (iea.org) ### Why does India’s trade data matter here? India’s commerce ministry released provisional April trade figures on May 15 showing a merchandise trade deficit of $28.38 billion. Mint, citing the ministry’s release, reported that imports rose even as exports increased, widening the gap at the start of the fiscal year. (ice.com) Bloomberg reported on May 15 that India’s import bill rose amid a spike in global oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict. That makes India one of the clearer early examples of higher crude costs feeding into national trade data. (iea.org) ### What does the IEA say comes next? The IEA said it assumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resume from June. On that basis, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 million barrels a day on average in 2026 to 102.2 million barrels a day. (livemint.com) The agency’s next monthly Oil Market Report will provide the next benchmark on inventories, supply losses and demand on the IEA website after the May 13 edition. India’s next monthly trade release from the commerce ministry will show whether the April widening in the import bill persists into May. (iea.org) (bloomberg.com)