One Nation could win 59 seats

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is now being modelled not as a protest party but as a potential federal opposition. A RedBridge Group and Accent Research poll published by ABC News on May 23 said the party could win between 46 and 59 House seats if an election were held now, with a median estimate of 53. That would leave Labor short of its current commanding position and reduce the Coalition to a fraction of its former footprint. A separate DemosAU survey cited by Yahoo and Neos Kosmos found One Nation on 28% of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 26% and the Coalition on 23%. ### How big is the seat projection? The ABC-reported RedBridge-Accent poll surveyed more than 6,000 voters and estimated One Nation could win as many as 59 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives. The model’s range was 46 to 59 seats, with Labor projected on 70 to 82 and the Coalition on just seven to 21. DemosAU had already published a separate multilevel regression and poststratification model in March showing One Nation on 46 to 55 seats and the Coalition on 9 to 17. That earlier model put Labor on 77 to 86 seats, still enough for government but with a reduced majority. (abc.net.au) ### Why is “59 seats” such a big number in Australia? Australia’s House has 150 seats, and the official opposition is usually the largest party or bloc outside government. If One Nation won 59 seats while the Coalition fell into the low teens, Hanson’s party would displace the Liberals and Nationals as the main opposition force in Canberra. (demosau.com) One Nation has never won a lower-house seat at a general election, according to ABC News. The party currently holds two lower-house seats — one through Barnaby Joyce’s defection and one through David Farley’s recent win in the Farrer by-election. (abc.net.au) ### Is this one poll or a broader polling move? Roy Morgan said on May 14 that a snap poll taken after the federal budget put One Nation on 32% of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 28.5% and well above the Coalition on 16.5%. Roy Morgan said the survey was conducted on May 13-14 with 2,348 electors. (abc.net.au) Resolve polling reported by The New Daily put Labor ahead on 29%, but showed One Nation rising to 24%, ahead of the Coalition on 23%. DemosAU’s later survey, conducted May 15-20 among 1,502 respondents and cited by Yahoo, put One Nation ahead of Labor for the first time on primary vote. (roymorgan.com) ### Does this mean Labor would lose government? The RedBridge-Accent model still had Labor as the largest party, with a median 76 seats, down from its current 94. That is above the 75-seat threshold usually needed for a bare majority in the 150-seat chamber, but the lower end of the range — 70 seats — points to minority government if the result slipped. (thenewdaily.com.au) George Hasanakos, DemosAU’s research director, said in comments carried by Yahoo that if polling continued to reflect that survey, Australia was headed for a hung parliament. ABC separately reported that Accent Research political scientist Shaun Ratcliff said voting on those numbers would “wipe out the two-party system.” (abc.net.au) ### What are party figures saying? Barnaby Joyce, now a One Nation MP, told ABC News it was “hubristic and way, way, way ahead of ourselves” to assume where the party would be at the next election. He said the party had been given “an incredible responsibility” by voters but should not get carried away. (au.news.yahoo.com) Angus Taylor, the Liberal leader, urged party members to mobilise as the polling showed the Liberals at risk of being nearly wiped out by One Nation, ABC reported. ### What should readers watch next? The next test is whether multiple pollsters keep showing One Nation ahead of the Coalition and competitive with Labor through the post-budget period. (abc.net.au) Roy Morgan, Resolve, RedBridge-Accent and DemosAU are now all part of that picture, but the seat models and vote shares are snapshots, not election results. Any further by-elections, fresh national polling and updated seat-by-seat models will show whether Hanson’s party can hold support beyond May 2026. (abc.net.au) (roymorgan.com)