Fed‑cuts pricing shift flagged
Market pundits on recent finance shows said pricing has flipped — markets moved from expecting three Fed cuts by December to pricing zero cuts and possible hikes, driven by elevated oil and inflation risks ( #). Hosts flagged that sustained energy prices plus geopolitical risk are a key reason markets are dialing back hopes for easy policy ( #).
CME FedWatch showed market odds of a rate hold at the March FOMC near-certainty, and market-implied pricing now puts only a low-single-digit to mid-teens chance of a 25bp cut by the December 9, 2026 meeting according to snapshot trackers. (fedwatch.com)) Brent crude settled at $103.14 on March 13 after trading above $100 for consecutive sessions, a move tied to tanker disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. (bloomberg.com)) Goldman Sachs raised its average Brent forecast to above $100 for March as oil volatility surged, and benchmark futures swung as much as roughly 35% in a single week during the first half of March. (investing.com)) Short‑dated U.S. Treasury yields climbed with the 10‑year around 4.39% and the 2‑year near 3.9% in mid‑to‑late March, levels Bloomberg and market data flagged as the highest for those tenors since mid‑2025. (cnbc.com)) The Federal Reserve’s dot‑plot and staff projections still imply one 25bp cut in 2026, and the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections raised its year‑end personal‑consumption‑expenditures inflation estimate to about 2.7%. (cnbc.com)) Market commentators and bond desks cited by Bloomberg and CNBC say that the faster oil‑driven inflation impulse and recent geopolitical strikes have pushed traders to reprice away from earlier, more dovish paths — a repricing that has already widened the gap between futures and some Fed members’ projections. (bloomberg.com))
