Sean Spicer links Hormuz disruptions to food prices

Sean Spicer used an X post on May 13 to connect higher U.S. food prices to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer supply pressure and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The former White House press secretary said those forces amounted to “geopolitical economic warfare,” according to the post referenced by the social link provided by the user. The claim landed a day after the U.S. (bls.gov) Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that grocery prices rose 0.7% in April from the prior month and that the broader food index rose 0.5%. (ers.usda.gov) Official data and multilateral analysis support parts of the chain Spicer described, though they do not frame it in his terms. UN Trade and Development said in March that conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz region was disrupting energy and fertilizer flows and increasing risks to food production, supply and prices. U.S. and USDA materials also show that Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine intensified global fertilizer and food-market stress, while the Treasury Department said U.S. sanctions were not aimed at agricultural and fertilizer trade. (bls.gov) ### What exactly did Spicer tie together in his post? Sean Spicer said on May 13 that shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer “weaponization” and the Russia-Ukraine war were feeding into higher food prices in the United States. The wording, as described in the referenced X post, presented those developments as a connected geopolitical pressure campaign. The post appeared as inflation data were back in focus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on May 12 that the food-at-home index increased 0.7% in April and was up 2.9% from a year earlier, while the overall food index rose 3.2% on a 12-month basis. (unctad.org) ### How does the Strait of Hormuz connect to food prices? UN Trade and Development said on March 30 that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by more than 95%, disrupting energy and fertilizer flows. The agency said the region is central to global fertilizer supply both as a producer and as a trade route, and that rising energy, fertilizer and transport costs were increasing risks to food production, supply and prices. The same UNCTAD analysis said the strait carries about a quarter of seaborne oil as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. (bls.gov) Higher fuel and gas prices matter because nitrogen fertilizer production is closely tied to energy costs, and transport costs feed into farm input bills. ### Why does fertilizer matter so much in this chain? USDA’s Economic Research Service said in a 2023 analysis that fertilizer shortages and high prices affect the entire food supply chain because fertilizer is a major operating cost for grain production. (unctad.org) ERS said fertilizer costs account for nearly 45% of operating expenses for U.S. wheat and corn farms, compared with 23% for soybean farms. Carnegie Endowment analysis published in March 2026 said Persian Gulf countries account for about 46% of global seaborne urea transit and around 30% of ammonia transit. (unctad.org) That analysis also said food prices typically react with a lag of six to nine months to fertilizer-market shocks, an estimate from that source rather than an official U.S. forecast. ### Where does Russia’s war in Ukraine fit in? USDA said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 exacerbated already high food and fertilizer prices and that the resulting trade restrictions affected fertilizer trade and agricultural production, particularly for staple grains. (ers.usda.gov) ERS said fertilizer prices jumped more than 50% from February to April 2022 after the invasion added transportation interruptions and new restrictions to an already tight market. (carnegieendowment.org) The Treasury Department said in a July 2022 fact sheet that agricultural and medical trade were not targets of U.S. sanctions on Russia. Treasury instead said Russia’s war had “strangled” food and agriculture production and that Washington was trying to keep agricultural trade flowing while responding to the invasion. ### Do current U.S. numbers show food prices rising? The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on May 12 that the food index rose 0.5% in April after being unchanged in March. The food-at-home index rose 0.7% in April, with meats, poultry, fish and eggs up 1.3% and fruits and vegetables up 1.8% over the month. (ers.usda.gov) USDA’s Economic Research Service said on April 24 that its Food Price Outlook provides monthly forecasts based on the latest Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data. The agency said those updates are typically released on the 25th of each month, or earlier if that date falls on a weekend or holiday. (home.treasury.gov) The next official checkpoint is USDA’s next Food Price Outlook update, which the agency says is usually published around May 25, followed by future BLS CPI releases tracking grocery and restaurant prices. (bls.gov) (ers.usda.gov)