Hurricane Marie could affect Southern California

The National Hurricane Center said on September 1 that Tropical Storm Marie was expected to strengthen into a hurricane and send swells north toward Southern California over the Labor Day weekend. Forecasters said the storm’s core was likely to stay well offshore, but they warned that beaches could still see dangerous surf, rip currents and some rain chances. National Weather Service offices in Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego said the exact local outcome remained uncertain because the storm’s track and moisture feed could still shift. The result is a holiday forecast shaped less by landfall risk than by coastal hazards and unsettled weather. ### Is Hurricane Marie expected to hit Southern California directly? The National Hurricane Center said at 8 p.m. MST on Tuesday, September 1, that Marie was centered about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving northwest at 9 mph. The agency said additional strengthening was expected and that Marie was forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. (nhc.noaa.gov) The National Weather Service in San Diego said the “most likely scenario remains that the core of Marie will remain well to the southwest of the area.” The New York Times, citing forecasters on September 2, reported that the storm was expected to stay far offshore rather than strike California directly. ### If the storm stays offshore, why are officials still warning people? (nhc.noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center said swells generated by Marie would affect the Baja California Peninsula first and would “likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend.” The agency said those swells were likely to cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” and directed people to local weather offices for details. (forecast.weather.gov) The National Weather Service in San Diego said swell from Hurricane Marie was expected to increase surf at Southern California beaches during the weekend, with the biggest surf for beaches in Orange and San Diego counties from Oceanside northward. A separate San Diego surf product said a high rip current risk means life-threatening rip currents are likely. ### Could Southern California also get rain? (nhc.noaa.gov) The National Weather Service in San Diego said there were “good chances for measurable” spotty precipitation over the weekend, while adding that uncertainty remained about how much rain to expect. That means showers were in the forecast discussion, but not with a firm rainfall total for the region as of Wednesday. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard said on September 2 that “several potential scenarios exist for the Labor Day weekend,” ranging from benign conditions to tropical rain or even offshore-wind weather. (forecast.weather.gov) In a fire weather product, that office said Hurricane Marie would approach Southern California from Saturday through Tuesday and that a wide range of tracks and outcomes was still possible, including large surf, moderate coastal flooding from seawater and periods of at least light rain. (weather.gov) ### Which parts of the coast look most exposed? Orange County and San Diego County beaches were singled out by the National Weather Service in San Diego for the biggest surf, especially from Oceanside northward. That makes beach conditions, rather than inland wind damage, the clearest near-term concern in the official forecast. Southern California forecasters have also pointed people to local beach and surf forecasts, which are updated separately from broader storm advisories. (forecast.weather.gov) The San Diego office’s beach products track rip current risk by stretch of coast, and the agency’s marine pages carry surf-zone and coastal-water forecasts for holiday travelers, surfers and boaters. ### What should people watch before making weekend plans? NOAA’s National Hurricane Center said it was continuing to issue advisories for Marie as of late Wednesday, September 2. (forecast.weather.gov) The National Weather Service offices in Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego were also updating local forecast discussions and hazard products as the storm evolved. Labor Day weekend travelers and beachgoers will get the clearest picture from those updated advisories, local surf forecasts and rip current outlooks through Saturday, Sunday and Monday. (weather.gov) The next step is not a landfall warning in California at this stage, but a series of forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and Southern California weather offices as Marie’s track and moisture plume become clearer. (nhc.noaa.gov 1) (nhc.noaa.gov 2)