IAEA Warns of Radiological Risk in Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned it “cannot rule out” a potential radiological release from the ongoing U.S. and allied strikes in Iran. While no direct hits on nuclear facilities are confirmed, the agency highlighted the ongoing risk to nuclear infrastructure amid the intense air operations.
The IAEA's warning extends beyond direct strikes, as a loss of power to Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant could lead to a reactor core meltdown. Such an event at the operational light-water reactor would pose the most significant radiological threat, with the potential to release highly radioactive materials like iodine-131 and cesium-137 over long distances. This contrasts with enrichment facilities, where the primary concern is the chemical toxicity of uranium hexafluoride gas and a more localized radiological hazard. Iran's primary uranium enrichment facility is located at Natanz, which has both above-ground and underground sections. Another key enrichment site, Fordow, is built deep inside a mountain to protect it from aerial attacks. Both sites have been central to international concerns and have been targeted in past military operations. While damage has been confirmed at the entrance to the underground Natanz facility in recent events, no radiological release has been detected. The history of Iran's nuclear program is marked by concealment and disputes with the IAEA. The existence of the Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites, as well as the Arak heavy-water reactor, were initially hidden from the agency. For years, the IAEA has been investigating the presence of man-made uranium particles at several undeclared sites, with Iran's explanations not being deemed technically credible by the watchdog. Tensions over monitoring have escalated significantly since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In February 2021, Iran ceased implementing the "Additional Protocol," which allows for snap inspections. Following military strikes in June 2025, Iran passed legislation barring IAEA inspectors from all its nuclear facilities, leading the agency to state it has lost "continuity of knowledge" of Iran's nuclear activities. Communication between the IAEA and Iranian nuclear authorities has been severed since the latest round of strikes. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly called for maximum restraint, emphasizing that armed attacks on nuclear facilities could have grave consequences that extend far beyond the borders of the state being attacked. The Bushehr plant, located in a seismic zone, has previously been a source of concern for neighboring Gulf countries due to the risk of earthquakes. Although designed to withstand significant seismic activity, the combination of natural hazards and military conflict amplifies the potential for a nuclear incident in an already volatile region.
