Trump arrives in Beijing weakened

Donald Trump is going to Beijing this week for a May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping. On paper, that sounds like a big comeback moment — first presidential trip to China since 2017, CEOs in tow, deals to chase. But the timing is rough. The Iran war has crashed into the agenda, Trump’s tariff strategy just took another hit in court, and China suddenly has more room to play power broker than supplicant. ### Why does Trump look weaker going in? Because two things broke at once. First, Trump’s main economic pressure campaign against China has been blunted by the courts. The Supreme Court knocked out his broader IEEPA tariffs in February, and on May 7 the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that his 10% fallback global tariff under Section 122 was unlawful too, even if the administration is appealing. That matters because tariffs were supposed to be the visible proof that Washington still had escalation power. (csis.org) ### Why does Iran matter so much here? Because the summit is no longer just about trade. The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz have turned energy flows into the main geopolitical pressure point. Trump officials have been openly pushing Beijing to use its ties with Tehran to calm things down and help keep shipping moving. China, for its part, hosted Iran’s foreign minister this past week and called for the reopening of Hormuz. (taxfoundation.org) That gives Xi a very useful card — China can present itself as one of the few capitals with real access to Iran. ### What does China have that Washington needs? A lot of chokepoints. China still dominates heavy rare earth processing and permanent magnets, which feed everything from autos to defense supply chains. CSIS noted that the export restrictions Beijing rolled out in April 2025 exposed how dependent the U.S. and its allies still are. So even before Iran entered the picture, China already had a practical form of leverage that is much harder to slogan away than a tariff headline. (apnews.com) ### Are business deals still part of this? Yes, but they now look secondary. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is expected to go, and Citi CEO Jane Fraser confirmed she plans to attend. Boeing is chasing its first large China order in nearly a decade. But turns out the White House resisted making the CEO contingent look too cozy with Beijing, and the broader business delegation appears smaller than the ones other countries have recently brought. (csis.org) That tells you the trip is not being staged as a clean commercial reset. ### What does Xi want back? Probably not one giant bargain. More likely a bundle of smaller trades. Analysts expect Beijing to press for relief on tariffs, export controls, and maybe language or signaling around Taiwan, while offering cooperation on stabilizing energy markets and keeping the bilateral relationship from sliding further. The catch is that China does not need to look eager. Even relatively modest concessions can now be framed as favors. (cnbc.com) ### Could the summit still produce something useful? Yes — just maybe not the thing Trump most wants. If the two sides can lower the temperature on Iran and keep Hormuz traffic moving, markets and multinationals would take that as a real win. CNBC’s reporting captures the mood well: rare earths and tariff issues may get pushed down the list because the war is the bigger immediate threat to global business. (cfr.org) ### So what is this meeting really about? Basically, it is a leverage test disguised as a summit. Trump is arriving with fewer obvious tools than he expected. Xi is arriving with more usable ones than usual — minerals, diplomatic access, and a stronger story about stability. That does not mean China gets everything. But it does mean Beijing can negotiate from a position that looks unusually comfortable. (cnbc.com) ### Bottom line Trump is still going to Beijing to show he can manage the world’s most important bilateral relationship. But the trip now looks less like a show of strength than a search for a deal that stops several problems from getting worse at once. (csis.org) (cfr.org)