Iran Prepares for New Supreme Leader

The new Supreme Leader inherits control over all major state functions, including the armed forces, judiciary, and state media, and has the final say on all foreign and domestic policy. This authority is rooted in the constitutional principle of *velayat-e faqih*, or the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist. The selection is made by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of clerics. However, all candidates for the Assembly must first be vetted by the Guardian Council, whose members are appointed directly or indirectly by the Supreme Leader, a process critics say limits the field to establishment loyalists. This marks only the second leadership transition since the 1979 revolution; the first occurred in 1989 upon the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In the interim, a temporary council comprising the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council member assumes leadership duties, though with limited powers. Mojtaba Khamenei, born in 1969, has never held elected office but has wielded significant influence from within his father's office, building deep ties with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). His potential succession raises concerns about a dynastic transfer of power, a concept that runs contrary to revolutionary principles and which he and his father had previously opposed. The transition occurs amidst a severe economic crisis, with inflation rates that have recently exceeded 48% and a currency, the rial, that has collapsed to record lows. The economy has been hobbled by international sanctions, mismanagement, and the recent conflict, with the World Bank projecting an economic contraction for 2026. A change in leadership could have significant market repercussions. A study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies suggests that a fundamental political shift and reintegration into the global economy could boost Iran's GDP by over 80% and increase the EU's economic output by over €54 billion annually.