Refunds: legal win, political risk

Talk of tariff refunds is real in some cases, but it is not one story. A September 25, 2025 federal appeals ruling covered Trump’s first-term China tariffs under Section 301, while a February 20, 2026 White House order separately ended several newer tariffs imposed under emergency powers. (cafc.uscourts.gov) (whitehouse.gov) In *HMTX Industries v. United States*, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said the 2018 List 3 and List 4A China tariffs were challenged as exceeding statutory authority. The opinion says List 1 and List 2 duties on about $50 billion of imports were not at issue, while List 3 covered about $200 billion and List 4A about $120 billion. (cafc.uscourts.gov) That case matters to importers because more than 3,600 lawsuits were filed in the Court of International Trade over those later-round Section 301 duties. Any refund path would turn on the final disposition of those cases and Customs procedures, not on social posts alone. (cafc.uscourts.gov) (cbp.gov) A different legal track involved tariffs imposed in 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the emergency-powers law known as IEEPA. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court said the question in *Learning Resources v. Trump* was whether IEEPA authorizes the president to impose tariffs at all. (supremecourt.gov) The same day, the White House issued an order ending certain tariff actions and said the additional duties imposed under IEEPA “shall no longer be in effect” and, “as soon as practicable,” “shall no longer be collected.” The order listed tariffs tied to Canada, Mexico, China, Venezuela, reciprocal tariffs, Brazil, Russia, Cuba, and Iran. (whitehouse.gov) That is why refund chatter spread: one set of cases questioned whether some tariffs were lawfully imposed, and another set of tariffs was formally shut off by executive order. But the public record I reviewed does not show a White House order telling companies not to file lawful refund claims. (cafc.uscourts.gov) (whitehouse.gov) There is a narrower, older mechanism importers already use: duty drawback. U.S. Customs and Border Protection says Section 301 duties are eligible for drawback, which lets qualifying exporters recover certain duties under existing customs rules. (cbp.gov) The politics cut the other way. Since returning to office, Trump has expanded tariffs in other areas, including a White House fact sheet released in April 2026 on stronger tariffs for steel, aluminum, and copper imports. (whitehouse.gov) So companies are left with a split screen: courts and customs law can create openings to recover money, while the administration is still publicly presenting tariffs as a core trade tool. The next concrete signal will come from court mandates, Customs guidance, or any formal refund process the government puts in writing. (supremecourt.gov) (cbp.gov)