Tariffs hurt all states
A new study finds that the tariffs imposed under the Trump administration have inflicted measurable economic damage across every US state, acting like a broad tax on supply chains. (fortune.com) After duties spiked above 100% in 2025, a temporary rollback reportedly brought US tariffs on Chinese goods down to roughly 30% and Chinese duties on US exports to about 10%, but tensions and negotiations are ongoing. (foxnews.com) Meanwhile, Chinese trade data show exports slowed to 2.5% year‑on‑year in March while imports surged and shipments to the US fell 26.5%, reflecting the wider trade dislocations. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
A new economic study says the Trump trade war cut real income across the United States, with losses showing up in every state through higher costs, weaker exports, or both. (nber.org) The paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in May 2025, modeled tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, plus retaliation abroad. It found overall United States real income falls about 1% by 2028 if the tariffs stay in place, even as manufacturing payrolls rise and service and farm jobs decline. (nber.org) The state-by-state pattern is uneven, but the national hit is broad. The researchers found about half the states lose real income directly, some by more than 3%, while tariff revenue gets redistributed across states and still does not offset the wider drag on wages, jobs, and prices. (nber.org) A tariff is a tax on imports, and recent research says United States buyers paid most of it. A National Bureau of Economic Research summary published April 1, 2026, estimated pass-through at 94% for the 2025 tariffs, meaning importers mostly absorbed the duty instead of foreign exporters cutting prices. (nber.org) Federal Reserve economists reported on April 8, 2026, that tariffs imposed through November 2025 raised core goods prices by 3.1% through February 2026 and added 0.8% to core personal consumption expenditures prices overall. They said the pass-through into consumer prices appeared “effectively complete.” (federalreserve.gov) That helps explain why the damage reaches states that do not look export-heavy on paper. Manufacturers pay more for imported parts, retailers pay more for finished goods, and farm states get hit when other countries answer with tariffs on United States crops and food. (nber.org) (fortune.com) The tariff fight also changed shape after the biggest 2025 spike. Fox Business reported that a 90-day truce cut United States tariffs on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and Chinese levies on American goods from 125% to 10%, but only temporarily. (foxbusiness.com) Other tariffs are still in force. The Tax Foundation said on March 13, 2026, that the average effective United States tariff rate was 7.7% in 2025, the highest since 1947, and estimated current 2026 tariffs still amount to a $600 tax increase per household after a Supreme Court ruling knocked out some of the earlier measures. (taxfoundation.org) Trade data from China show the disruption is still visible in the flow of goods. China’s exports rose 2.5% in March from a year earlier, down from 21.8% growth in January and February combined, while imports jumped 27.8% and shipments to the United States fell 26.5%. (apnews.com) (cnbc.com) President Donald Trump has argued tariffs push production back into the United States and strengthen bargaining leverage with Beijing. The new research does find more manufacturing employment, but it also finds lower real wages, lower labor-force participation, and losses that spread well beyond the factory states the policy was meant to help. (nber.org) The next test is whether the temporary tariff rollback turns into a lasting deal. Until that happens, the evidence from prices, trade flows, and the state-level model points in the same direction: the costs did not stay at the border. (foxbusiness.com) (federalreserve.gov)
