Broker: BoC walking a 'tightrope'
Mortgage broker Mark Mitchell called the Bank of Canada’s policy stance a “tightrope” given spiking oil prices and recent job losses—summing up frontline broker sentiment on the policy dilemma, reported.
Employment declined by 84,000 in February and the national unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, Statistics Canada reported. www150.statcan.gc.ca Global crude jumped sharply in early March—Brent closed near US$91.98 and U.S. crude settled around US$87.25 on March 11—after attacks and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. cnbc.com The International Energy Agency warned that flows through the Strait have plunged and Gulf production cuts totalled at least 10 million barrels per day, amplifying near-term upside pressure on global inflation. iea.org The Bank of Canada has its next policy announcement scheduled for March 18, 2026, and the policy debate centers on whether higher energy-driven inflation risks will outweigh the labour-market weakness. bankofcanada.ca Market-implied odds ahead of the March 18 meeting show a strong probability that the BoC will hold the policy rate at the current 2.25% setting, with live probability dashboards assigning roughly a 70–80% chance of a hold. bankofcanadaodds.com Housing activity began 2026 soft: CREA reported national MLS® home sales fell 5.8% month-over-month in January, the non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price was about $652,941 in January and CREA’s HPI was down roughly 4.9% year-over-year as of the latest release. crea.ca Retail mortgage pricing shows advertised five‑year fixed specials clustered in the high‑3s to low‑4s (best public listings around 3.6–3.8% per rate aggregators), while Big‑6 listed 5‑year fixed offers remain nearer the mid‑4% area, and several lenders continue 120‑day rate guarantees or promotional bundles through mid‑2026. wowa.ca
