Sweet 16 upset alerts
Bracket experts are primed for at least one major Sweet 16 upset tonight — CBS’s bracket specialist backs a No. 1 seed to fall and Sports Illustrated ranks the top three upset bets for the round (cbssports.com) (si.com).
CBS panelist Bruce Pearl projected No. 5 St. John’s to knock off No. 1 Duke in the Sweet 16 and put the Johnnies into his Final Four — a pick Pearl announced on CBS’s bracket reveal panel. (on3.com) Sports Illustrated’s betting team ranked its top three Sweet 16 upset targets as (3) Iowa at +106 vs. Nebraska, (2) St. John’s at +235 vs. Duke, and (1) Illinois vs. Houston — all odds listed via FanDuel in SI’s breakdown. (si.com) SI pointed to Iowa’s rebounding and offensive profile (18th in eFG%) and noted Nebraska’s offensive-rebound rate ranked 311th, while reminding readers the Hawkeyes already beat Nebraska once this season. (si.com) On St. John’s, SI highlighted the Johnnies’ season-long defense (8th in adjusted defensive efficiency; 23rd in opponent eFG%) and flagged Duke’s turnover issues (127th in turnover rate) plus Caleb Foster’s injury as factors that lower Duke’s ceiling. (si.com) SI’s top upset pick — Illinois over Houston — sits against a tight market: sportsbooks opened Houston as roughly a 2.5-point favorite with a 139.5 over/under for the Sweet 16 matchup, making the Illini a close betting proposition. (si.com) CBS’s tournament coverage also notes the field has been largely chalky so far but that Florida is the lone No. 1 seed already eliminated, underscoring why oddsmakers and pundits are watching these particular Sweet 16 spots closely. (cbssports.com)
