Tariff threat could pressure prices

President Donald Trump said on April 13 that China could face a new 50% tariff if Beijing is found supplying military aid to Iran. (cnbc.com) The threat followed a Reuters report, cited by CNBC, that China was preparing a weapons shipment to Iran. Trump had already said on April 8 that any country supplying military weapons to Iran would be hit with a 50% tariff “with no exclusions or exemptions.” (cnbc.com) (politico.com) Trump tied the warning to a wider pressure campaign on Iran after the United States said it began blocking ships entering or leaving Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz at 10 a.m. Eastern time on April 13. United States Central Command said it would not impede ships going to non-Iranian ports. (cnbc.com) A tariff is a tax paid at the border when goods enter the United States. Economists at Yale’s Budget Lab said imported core goods and durable goods prices rose during 2025, and their estimates found tariff costs were passed through to consumer prices at rates ranging from roughly 46% to 115%, depending on the category. (budgetlab.yale.edu) China still matters for American store shelves even after last year’s trade shock. The Office of the United States Trade Representative said the United States imported $308.4 billion in goods from China in 2025, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics said China’s share of United States goods imports fell to 9% by the end of 2025 from 22% before the first Trump trade war in 2018. (ustr.gov) (piie.com) Trade data for early 2026 show the relationship is still large in dollar terms. Census Bureau figures show the United States imported about $40.0 billion in goods from China in January and February combined. (census.gov) The shipping risk sits on top of the tariff risk. The Energy Information Administration said about 20 million barrels a day moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, equal to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption, and the International Energy Agency said roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade passes through the waterway. (eia.gov) (iea.org) Associated Press reporting on April 13 said supply-chain analysts expected any prolonged disruption around Hormuz to hit oil, fertilizer and food flows, while oil prices had already risen on the blockade news. That creates a second channel for higher consumer costs, beyond any new tariff on Chinese goods. (usnews.com) (ktvz.com) Whether Trump can carry out the tariff threat as stated is still unsettled. Politico reported that the Supreme Court in February removed the main emergency-law tool Trump had used for broad tariffs, and the White House did not immediately say what authority it would use for this case. (politico.com) For households, the practical question is whether a geopolitical threat turns into a border tax and a shipping squeeze at the same time. If that happens, the pressure would land first on fuel and on imported goods that still rely on Chinese factories and long ocean supply chains. (budgetlab.yale.edu) (census.gov)