Growth upgraded, markets wobble
Fitch raised its 2026 global growth forecast after 2025 GDP expanded about 2.7%, but rising energy prices and geopolitical shocks are fueling equity volatility across regions. The energy surge helped lift commodity and energy stocks even as broader markets slipped, and safe‑haven demand pushed gold higher amid the uncertainty. (investordaily.com.au) (abc.net.au) (litefinance.org)
Fitch’s March Global Economic Outlook pegs world GDP at 2.7% for 2025 and revisions lift its 2026 forecast to 2.6% from 2.4% in December, citing resilient demand and AI‑related investment as offsetting forces. (fitchratings.com) The agency raised its assumed average Brent crude price for 2026 to $70/bbl (from $63) on March 11 and modelled a scenario that assumes the Strait of Hormuz could be effectively closed for about one month. (nukta.com) Fitch’s regional tweaks include an upgraded US 2026 GDP forecast to about 2.2% driven by stronger consumption and AI investment, while it flags China slowing to roughly 4.3% in 2026 after a 5.0% read in 2025. (fitchratings.com) Markets reflected that split: the S&P/ASX 200 slid about 1.7% to 8,497.8 on March 19 as most sectors fell while the energy subindex and individual oil names posted multi‑year highs. (360miq.com) Top ASX energy movers included Woodside Energy up ~6.6%, Santos up ~3.7% and Ampol making double‑digit gains on the session as Brent surged above US$110–$112 a barrel amid Middle East tensions. (fool.com.au) US markets also wobbled: the S&P 500 closed down about 1.4% at 6,624.70 with the VIX rising ~12.2% to 25.09, and futures edged lower after the Dow hit a fresh 2026 low as investors priced higher oil and sticky inflation risks. (zacks.com) Fitch explicitly warned that its baseline assumes the oil shock is short‑lived and that a prolonged period of elevated energy prices would slow global growth and push up inflation — a key conditional risk to the upgraded 2026 outlook. (moneycontrol.com) Safe‑haven flows have pushed gold to multi‑thousand dollar levels this month, with outlets reporting renewed buying as geopolitical risk rose and spot prices trading near the mid‑$4,800s on intraday feeds. (cnbc.com)
