Trump seeks energy sales to China

Energy is the easy part of this Trump-Xi summit — or at least the part both sides can package as a win. Trump heads into Beijing on May 14–15 looking for something concrete he can announce fast, and China buying more U.S. fuel fits that need. The gap is that the trade war didn’t just sour relations in the abstract. (money.usnews.com) It slammed the door on actual cargoes. Now the two governments are floating a narrow fix: lower some barriers, restart some purchases, and call that progress. ### Why energy first? Because energy is one of the few areas where the numbers are big, the mechanics are simple, and the politics are manageable. China needs fuel. The U.S. has a lot to sell. (ca.finance.yahoo.com) And unlike chips or industrial policy, a cargo of LNG or crude oil does not force either side to settle deeper fights about technology, security, or state subsidies. It is basically the most transactional thing on the table. ### What got broken? Tariffs did. China now puts a 25% tariff on U.S. LNG and a 20% tariff on U.S. crude oil. Coal faces 28% to 31%, while propane and ethane face 11%. Those rates turned U.S. cargoes from competitive into awkward or uneconomic, especially when Chinese buyers could switch to other suppliers. (money.usnews.com) ### Why is LNG the main story? Because LNG is where the collapse is easiest to see. The U.S. sent 8.98 million tons of LNG to China in 2021, then 4.15 million tons in 2024, and just 26,000 tons in 2025 after the latest tariff wave. That is not a slowdown. That is trade nearly disappearing. The weird part is that some Chinese firms still hold long-term U.S. contracts — they have just been reselling cargoes into Europe instead of bringing them home. (money.usnews.com) ### Would cutting the tariff matter right away? Yes — especially now. Analysts say U.S. LNG would likely undercut Asian spot cargoes if Beijing removed the 25% tariff, partly because the Iran war has scrambled energy markets and lifted costs elsewhere. (money.usnews.com) But the catch is demand. China’s LNG demand is still expected to stay soft this year, so even a tariff cut would revive trade more than it would unleash a buying boom. ### What about oil? Oil matters, but less than LNG. China is the world’s biggest crude importer, yet U.S. barrels have never been central to its supply mix. Chinese imports of U.S. crude peaked around 395,000 barrels a day in 2020 after the Phase 1 deal. (money.usnews.com) In 2024 they were 193,000 barrels a day, worth about $6 billion. Since May 2025, China has imported no U.S. oil at all. Canada and Brazil have filled the gap. ### Is agriculture tied into this too? Very much so. Trump is also chasing deals on beans, beef, and other farm goods. But agriculture shows why this summit is likely to produce only narrow gains. Soybeans still face a 13% tariff. Beef can face 22% to 77%, depending on quota levels. (money.usnews.com) So even if Beijing offers headline purchases, the broader tariff structure still shapes how much trade actually returns. ### So what is the real goal here? Not a grand bargain. A deliverable. Trump’s ambitions have narrowed after court fights over tariffs and a rough foreign-policy stretch tied to Iran. Analysts expect a few commodity deals, maybe some tariff easing, and maybe an extension of the trade truce machinery already in place. (money.usnews.com) That is useful. But it is not a strategic reset. ### Bottom line If this summit produces anything tangible, it will probably look like ships, not statesmanship. China can buy more U.S. energy without changing its core posture, and Trump can point to cargoes as proof that pressure worked. That makes a deal plausible — but also small. (money.usnews.com) (ca.finance.yahoo.com)