TransUnion Forecasts Positive Loan Origination Momentum
TransUnion's 2026 Originations Forecast shows continued positive momentum for credit originations amidst a period of moderate expansion. The findings were released in conjunction with the company's Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report. The forecast suggests a stable to growing market for new loans across various credit products.
- The forecast for 2026 projects an 11.2% jump in unsecured personal loans and a roughly 4% increase in mortgages, while auto loan originations are expected to see a slight decline. - This positive outlook follows a strong end to 2025, where Q3 saw an 11.7% year-over-year increase in bankcard originations and a 6.2% rise in auto loan originations. - While originations are growing, delinquency rates are projected to see only slight increases in 2026, with serious credit card delinquencies expected to remain nearly flat at 2.57%. - Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, stated that after years of high inflation and interest rates, the market may be showing "signs of a return to more traditional growth." - The forecast anticipates that mortgage purchase originations will grow by 4.0% and refinances by 4.2% in 2026. This is seen as a return to a more normal cycle for the mortgage market. - The growth in lending comes as total U.S. household debt reached $18.8 trillion at the end of 2025, an increase of $191 billion in the fourth quarter, according to the New York Fed. - TransUnion's own financial performance was strong leading into the forecast, reporting a 13% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.17 billion for Q4 2025, beating analyst expectations. - The projections account for a complex economic environment, with inflation remaining above the target at 2.45% and unemployment expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by the end of 2026.
