FAO warns global food-price crisis

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said on May 21 that a severe global food-price crisis could emerge within six to 12 months if disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz continue. The warning links the Middle East conflict not only to oil and shipping costs, but to fertilizer supplies that feed directly into planting decisions and crop yields. (globalnews.ca) FAO officials said the risk is most acute for import-dependent countries that already spend heavily on food and fuel. The agency’s recent notes and speeches describe a chain running from energy markets to fertilizer costs to tighter food supplies later in 2026 and into 2027. ### Why is the Strait of Hormuz part of a food story? (fao.org) The Strait of Hormuz carries major volumes of oil, gas and fertilizer exports, and FAO said disruption there has already raised costs across agrifood supply chains. In a March information note, the agency said the conflict that erupted in the Gulf in February 2026 created a shock to global energy, fertilizer and food systems. About one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the strait, according to FAO reporting cited by Global News. Because natural gas is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, higher energy prices can push up fertilizer prices even before physical shortages spread through farm markets. (globalnews.ca) ### What exactly is FAO warning could happen in the next six to 12 months? FAO said the immediate risk is not only higher headline inflation, but lower farm use of fertilizer and weaker harvests in the next crop cycles. Director-General Qu Dongyu said on May 7 that fertilizer scarcity caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would lead to lower yields and tightening food supplies in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. (openknowledge.fao.org) Máximo Torero, FAO’s chief economist, said in an FAO briefing that elevated energy prices are expected to keep fertilizer costs under pressure. FAO projections cited by the agency show global fertilizer prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. (globalnews.ca) ### Which countries are most exposed? Import-dependent states face the sharpest risk because they buy both fuel and food on international markets and often have limited fiscal room to cushion households. FAO said higher energy costs threaten food affordability and political stability in those countries if governments cannot absorb the shock. (fao.org) Low-income consumers are already vulnerable to food inflation, according to FAO’s 2025 food security report, which said elevated prices have undermined purchasing power and access to healthy diets. That means a new fertilizer-driven price surge would hit populations already under strain rather than starting from a stable base. (fao.org) ### Is this about today’s food prices or the next harvest? The six-to-12-month window points mainly to the next harvests, because fertilizer shortages and high input costs show up first in planting and application decisions. FAO said on May 7 that the effect would be seen in lower yields and tighter supplies later in 2026 and in 2027. (globalnews.ca) The FAO Food Price Index remains one of the public gauges to watch as the year progresses. Alongside that index, the agency has pointed to fertilizer availability, trade flows and emergency support for vulnerable importers as the practical indicators of whether the warning is easing or worsening. (openknowledge.fao.org) ### What is FAO telling governments to do now? FAO said short-term action should focus on alternative trade corridors, emergency financial support for import-dependent countries and access to credit for farmers. In the medium term, the agency said countries should diversify fertilizer import sources, strengthen regional reserves and avoid export restrictions. (fao.org) May and June 2026 data on fertilizer trade, shipping through the Gulf and the next FAO food-price releases will offer the next public readouts on whether the agency’s six-to-12-month warning is beginning to materialize. (fao.org 1) (fao.org 2)